Horse Racing and Betting Thread

[unclepuncle]

Sorry omegaman -

If you had laid it off before Thursday morning (before the final declarations were made) then you would have at least won the lay part of your bet. But once the final field is declared the rules change to 'day of race' which means any non runners get refunded.

[unclepuncle]

One other bet that I have placed recently which may appeal to a few more Wammers is Spurs in the Champions League.

They meet Real Madrid in the quarter finals and while the bookies make them nearly 3/1 outsiders to qualify from the tie I make this a real 'toss of a coin' job. Haven't seen Madrid in action and I think the Mourinho factor is affecting the bookies. Spurs are capable of scoring plenty of goals and if Bale has a good half hour they can put a tie to bed in 30 minutes. So I reckon 11/4 (3.85 on Betfair) is very good value.

Think I need to find a new hobby

[Barney]

Think I need to find a new hobby

Hang on in there, one must speculate to accumulate, faint heart never won fair lady and all that bollocks

[Non-Smoking Man]

Day 1 of the Liverpool Grand National Meeting.
I've looked at the Red Rum - a 2m handicap Chase run over the Mildmay course (sharp).
3 of the last 6 winners ran in the grand Annual at Cheltenham and Oiseau De Nuit (winner) and Leo's Lucky Star(placed) run here. O de Nuit broke the track record in the Grand Annual (which tells you the ground was fast) and his comparitive adjusted time was the best of the day (according to my calculations).

The Oiseau horse is penalised 9 lbs (= 9 lengths) and many will fancy Leo's to reverse. Not me, however. Horses seldom reverse form even with a weight allowance.
This reasoning also brings in the Paul Nicholls first string - Tchico polos (who has beaten Oiseau De Nuit in the Game Spirit at Newbury. In addition, Walsh is 4/6 on this animal and hasnt ridden him since his first win of the season when he had the following horses behind him - Twist Magic
Somersby (placed in the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler)
Imsingingthe bkues (went off fav or near fav for the Grand Annual)
Cornas (subsequent winner)
Chaninbar (last years winner of the Red Rum)
Not bad eh? With Ruby back on this looks the plot horse.
2 niggles - hasnt done a time this year, makes mistakes, and (ok 3 niggles) some of its form hasnt worked out that well.
Woolacombe is badly handicapped but in the class; over half the field are out of the handicap.
Sports Line was behind in the grand Annual but is still acclimatising having joined from Mullins Irish stable last year. Wants soft.
Cant split Ruby'smount and this column's success story at Cheltenham - Oiseau de Nuit. If theres money for Sports Line it may contend at a biggish price.
No bet.

[unclepuncle]

Well the flat season well and truley gets into gear today with the first meeting at Newmarket - the headquarters of world flat racing.

The first classics of the season are now just over a fortnight away so I thought I 'd give you my thoughts on them - though given my strike rate so far I doubt anyone will be paying any attention

The 2,000 Guineas is run over a straight 1m at Newmarket and is for 3 year old colts. The market is dominated by Frankel - trained by Henry Cecil - this colt won all 4 of his races last year and was incredibly impressive in doing so, winning by long distances on his last 3 starts, culminating in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes which is traditionally the best UK 2 year old race of the season. He was a very well developed horse who was physically far bigger and more mature than his rivals last year - the question is, has he maintained that advantage. He runs this Saturday at Newbury in a trial race which wil tell us more. However he is odds on (10/11) already so you are not going to get rich backing him.

The main rival to him and my own fancy is an Irish trained horse called Pathfork. He was also unbeaten as a 2 year old, winning all 3 of his races including the Group 1 National Stakes on his last run, which is the leading Irish 2 year old race of the year. He narrowly beat a horse called Casamento on that occassion, but Casamento went on to 'frank that form' by winning the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster - traditionally a very good trial for the Derby. In the National Stakes the going was quite soft which wouldn't have suited Pathfork who is an American bred horse. He will be much better on a fast surface and at 7/1 he appeals as a decent bet (e/w if you prefer) against the favourite.
One other possible bet is Dubai Prince at 22/1 - another very impressive unbeaten horse, but he is not yet a definite runner so I would hold fire until the day. He is also my main fancy for the Derby at the moment but as he is only 12/1 for Epsom I would not advise a bet until we see him in action.

The 1,000 Guineas is run over the same course and distance but is exclusively for 3 year old female horses (fillies). This race has a much more open look to it as there were no outstanding 2 year olds last year. However, I think there is a stand out bet especially for those who like to hedge off nearer the day. Monnlight Cloud is a French trained filly who has won 4 of her 5 races. She returned to action last week in a trial race and ran out an impressive winner. She is currently available at 7/1 but if she gets the go ahead to run I think she will only be about 3/1 on the day. Of course if they decide not to run her you lose your money, but it would be a big surprise to me if they don't.

[Non-Smoking Man]

Good post Paul.
What are the going requirements of your fancies apart from Pathfork?
Jack

[unclepuncle]

I want the going on good or better side for both my fancies. Dubai Prince probably won't mind some cut though.

The long range forecast suggests it will be very fast ground - hardly any rain at Newmarket for the next 2-3 weeks. I expect it will be watrered which can of course cause draw bias issues if it's not done evenly

[unclepuncle]

Well Dubai prince is now injured and will miss both the 2,000 Guineas and The Derby so thank god I hadn't backed him as my money would have been lost.

Frankel won very impressively on Satruday and looks very hard to beat in the 2,000 Guineas - he/s now around 1/2 favourite for it. I still see Pathfork as his only real rival so 8/1 e/w is still not a bad bet.

[Non-Smoking Man]

Switching from the geegees for a moment..
In the recent Chinese Grand Prix the ultimate winner (Hamilton) sacrificed a chance at pole by restricting himself to one run instead of two, thus saving himself a fresh set of rubber for the race itself.
Bookies are apt to be slow in adapting to new circumstances - so is there a case for structuring your betting on the next few races with this new strategy in mind.
E.G., polesitter is short for the race - especially if its Vettel in a Red Bull - whatabout there being good value in laying Vettel here? And/or betting a potential winner starting lower on the grid.
What I am posing here is the question -- is tyre strategy more important than outright quali speedand pole position? I think so..

[Sheva]

Good bet on the F1 is that when Vettel's on pole, lay him to be leading at the end of 1st lap. Typically pole sitter is 1.25-1.35 to lead after 1 lap, yet Vettel fluffs it up at least half the time.

[Non-Smoking Man]

First Classic today - £2000 gns @ Newmarket on the Rowley course. 1mile staight.

Not studying form at present on the flat so no tips.
But GOOD LUCK HENRY CECIL with Frankel. What a cheer there will be if he can pull it off. Paddock indications with 5 mins to the off are that Frankel is relaxed (he can get worked up).
From the opening event I'd be surprised if they all didnt come down the middle.
Pathfork is unbeaten and has won a Group 1. A danger and I believe Unclepuncle is on..GOOD LUCK as well..
For a change, Channel 4 have just gone into Frankel's breeding in depth. (I used to do a lot of study of breeding) The distaff side is fascinating..Cecil has trained Frankels distant mother Rainbow Lake to win a Group 1.
Frankel not too impressive going to post..

[Non-Smoking Man]

You just cant do that in the Guineas over the punishing Rowley mile - what a performance! (Looked a good time - whats the track record?)

[Sheva]

A true WOW moment in sport. I've only had that feeling on the flat once before, when Arazi won the Breeders Juvenile.

Be amazed if he stays 12f though after that. First 6f would probably have won the July Cup.

[unclepuncle]

Amazing race (if you can it a race) - more like a procession. To have high quality horses flat to the boards after 2f is quite something.

[barnacle bill]

Heard on Radio 5 a short while back Frankel has a new speed rating of 142, higher than Sea The Stars.

Didn't give a course time.

[Sheva]

Heard on Radio 5 a short while back Frankel has a new speed rating of 142, higher than Sea The Stars.
Didn't give a course time.

The time was 1:37.3, faster than standard, but not a record, so i'm surprised the speed rating is so high; unless they have somehow compensated for the headwind, which they don't normally do.
I can't imagine the official rating or Timeform rating will be so high, probably low-mid 130's.

Edit: well apparently it IS the Timeform rating, a provisonal 142 (bare form of 137+ 2lengths) compared with STS final figure of 140 (bare form of 137+2l).
Sectionals would be fascinating, but non available.

[Barney]

Just watched the 2000 on Youtube, incredible to win a 1m classic so easily.
I was at Chester when Shergar won the vase, it reminded me of that.

[unclepuncle]

The 142 rating isn't a speed rating as such, it is a measure of of ability by Timeform, a racing form guide (not the official rating which is decided by the handicapper employed by the British Horse Racing Board). 142 is about the highest rating Timeform have given for 40 years

The rating itself is slightly hard to justify in my opinion. For all that he was hugely impressive I think many horses, especially those who looked his main form rivals, failed to run their race.

He beat the 2nd horse Dubawi Gold by 6 lengths, and this horse was only rated 101 before the race. Dubawi Gold had previously run 9 times and was what we call 'exposed' - in other words he had shown his own level of ability and was very unlikely to suddenly make a massive improvement. The 3rd horse Native Khan is the one I would use to compare Frankels ability. Native Khan had run 4 times, winning 3, and was still slightly unexposed. He was rated 111 before the race and it's fair to think he maybe improved a little and so ran to about 114. He was beaten 6 1/2L - so if we say each length is worth 2lb's then Frankel would be a 13lb better horse than Native Khan - so that would put Frankel on 127. You'd have to give Frankel a bit more, say 5lb, to allow for the ease of his win, so something around 132 - but I'm not sure 142 is justified just yet.

NB. I have just seen the Racing Post have given him a rating of 133 so more in line with my estimate.

[Non-Smoking Man]

I did glance at Topspeeds rating for Frankel prior to the race (126, I think - but he will have his own scale so not comparable with others) and spottedit was way aheadof the pack (dontknow what performance that rating was based on.)
Frankel probably went off too quick for a good time as an even pace is required to break the clock. I watched the horse and jockey carefully in the first few furlongs to see if the horse was running away with the jockey (his first classic victory) - but Frankel was (just) 'in his hands'and allowed to stride on.
The dam is Kind who was a 7f specialist. On the sire's side there is plenty of stamina. Agree with an earlier post - unlikely to stay the Derby distance but the Dante (mile and quarter) will tell us (and whether he can go round a bend!). Reference Point (under the maestro metronome Steve Cauthen) won the Derby from the front but its not done often..

[unclepuncle]

Well Frankel has now been deleted from the Derby betting - his connections instead deciding to keep him to races over 1m (same as on Saturday). His next run is due to be at Royal Ascot in June.

The Derby looks wide open at this stage and I'm hopeful that my long range 'dark horse' may still have a good chance. The horse is called Genius Beast and I made him my horse to follow for 2011 over on the Betfair forums in early January. He ran 3 times last year, first time out finishing 3rd behind Frankel. He reappeared at Sandown a couple of weeks ago in a Derby trial over 1 1/4m and won comfortably at 8/1 (I got 12/1 in the morning), and the further he went the better he looked so the 1 1/2m of the Derby should be fine for him. On all his runs he has really shown a great attitude - getting his head down and running all the way to the line. He is beautifully bred - his mother won the Irish Oaks (effectively the female Derby) and the Prix Vermeille (a top French fillies race).

He is possibly running next week in the Dante Stakes at York which is the premiere UK Derby trial - if he wins it or runs very well he will hopefully go to Epsom. He won't be favourite for the Dante as there are a couple of hyped up horses running in it as well. I expect he'll be about 8/1 again and I'll probably have a few quid on him on the day.

I have been backing him for the Derby on Betfair all winter and spring, a few pounds here a few pounds there, and have got prices between 200/1 and 340/1

He is still widely available at 40/1 for the Epsom Derby, and if he runs well next week that may look generous so I wouldn't put anyone off having a few quid e/w at that price.