Grand national 9/4

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Non-Smoking Man

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Jack lambert
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The 2022 Grand National is upon us and so I'm posting as I know some of you will have a flutter despite it appearing that no one on the Wam is interested in horseracing.

I enjoy writing so its no chore - and in the writing I find I sort stuff out as I go..

My starting point is always finding weaknesses - if gee gees have weaknesses and they are short in the betting there is betting value to be had elsewhere

1. The 5 or 6 horses at the top of the weights have seen better days and horses carrying a lot of weight have a statistical poor chance of winning.
2. I selected Mister Fogpatches at Cheltenhgam in the Kim Muir and it struggled - so I'm eliminating most horses that has form with it.
3. The race is rammed with Irish horses from select stables and they are filling the entries to prevent horses in better form for competing for the huge prize money.

Effectively these stables are cramming the field with their own no hopers. This makes for a race that looks competitive (40+ runners) but isnt.

Having said that there is a lot of luck involved with so many runners and (still) challenging fences - so no guarantees, just guidance.

When I scanned the runners I liked 'Two For Gold' but he is more likely to go for the Bowl over a trip more in keeping with his record. He could be interesting in a GN because he looks an out and out stayer over 3m and may improve over further. Further he is Group placed so has class.
Last year's winner (Minella Times), has shown nothing since.
Burrows Saint was placed last year but was thrashed by Any Second and Escaria Ten last time out.
Longhouse Poet won the important Thyestes Chase but had Mister Fogpatches in third so is tainted; also, he's never been over this sort of trip.

One horse I like who ran in the Thyestes (but was making its seasonal debut that day so I forgive him the form) is Escaria Ten and that HAS run well in a Group race over the trip (the 2021 NH Chase over 3m 6F, running Galvin close.

Ive been all morning redoing my Faireyhouse standard times to come to grips with his next run when in a photo with Any Second. Was it quick? Yes it was.

I watched that race a couiple of times and this Escaria Ten is a big longstriding type who will relish the flat galloping nature of the Grand National course. Moreover he jumped well and safely - an important point.
He hails from the GN winning trainer Gordon Elliot and he looks the bet @ 16 (Betfair Exchange).

I'm with ESCARIA TEN and hopeful of a good run.

Jack NSM
 
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Non-Smoking Man

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Checking the runners on the Racing Post site, I see that Two For Gold has just the single entry at Aintree - the Grand National. (So, not the Topham, in which it ran last year, nor the Bowl..)

It is a big price, casting doubt on its participation, but Ive had a bet to win similar money to Escaria Ten. Its a Group 1 placed chaser in a handicap so its going to outclass most of the field if Kim Bailey decides to risk it.

Jack NSM
 
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StingRay

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What’s the going likely to be, think there is some rain forecast in the next few days.
 

Non-Smoking Man

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Jack lambert
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Currently good/soft.
Aintree is like an airfield (Ive been there) and a stiff breeze will turn it from g/S to good in an afternoon. Rain is forecast for mon/tues/weds which will turn it soft, but that will be G/S by Sat.

Two for Gold loves the soft and my other fancy, the Escaria is Irish - nuff said.

Jack
 

bencat

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As I live just off the main A59 road which leads to Aintree and can and have walked to a from the course in previous years I view this meet with a little trepidation . Thursday is fine and is the day for those serious about racing mainly the Irish . Friday is Liverpool's day out with best clothes and ill fitting suits as far as the eye can see. National Day is carnage and I can not get out of the end of my road . Not going to any day this year but always think of my Dad at this time as we often went to Thursday races in the past . Only ever bet if I go to the races but nice to read up on the horses so I can give my informed tips then blame some body else . Thanks Jack .
 

Non-Smoking Man

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Jack lambert
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Lovely post Andrew - and spot on.

One thing I know about the Grand National meeting is that Cheltenham Festival form seldom works out there because the courses are so different:

1. Cheltenham is undulating, Aintree flat;
2. The Mildmay Chase course is sharp and the hurdle track even sharper as its inside the other tracks and has tight bends. Front runners do well;
3. Aintree comes too soon after Cheltenham - horses need recovery time.

I'm posting to mention that my second selection, Two For Gold, is 4lbs 'well in' as he showed improved form after the weights were published. (The second to Fakir D'Oudairies @ Ascot, Grade 1.)
I watched his run in last year's Topham (GN fences of course) - he clouted the 7th but dusted himself down and jumped ok till the canal turn when the jockey, David Bass, appeared to become unbalanced 50 yards after the fence and from the camera angle it wasnt clear why this happened (collided with another horse?), but he literally jumped off! I followed the riderless Two For Gold round and he continued on his own jumping well and staying on to finish around 7th. He was outpaced early doors on the good ground and I think connections are bearing this in mind in choosing the 4 miles + National as opposed to the 2.75m Topham.

The ? is- 'will he stay the trip?'
My other one, Escaria Ten, will stay all day.

Jack NSM
 

Non-Smoking Man

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Jack lambert
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Same goes for motor racing Allen - nobody wants any fatal accidents.
Ok, humans choose their profession, but many (e'g., the Mullins family in the case of horseracing) tend to follow in the family footsteps as they are brought up to be horsey. They are around animals all the time. If you want to talk about the philosophical dichotomy between Free Will vs. Determinism in sport many sportsmen and women are determined (socialised) rather than choose. Similarly racehorses are bred to race - its in their genes.

The horses you talk about are products of a breeding industry - if it wasnt for the sport the horse population would be about 5% of what it is. The industry, the owners, punters have all given horses a life..

If you know anything about racehorses you would know that the vast majority love to race. I was watching one of my GN selections running at Aintree last year. He unshipped his jockey at the canal turn and continued to jump round and finish the race. If, as you naively put it, he had a choice about it all, he would have pulled himself up rather than jump another twig, wouldnt he?

Believe me nobody likes to see a horse (or jockey) injure themselves, and, indeed, this race, the Grand National has had the fences reduced and the distance reduced in the interests of safety.

Discussion closed, if that's ok with you Allen.

Jack NSM
 

antonio66

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We watch plenty of racing on tv and I can tell you many horses love to race, I remember one horse which carried on running without a rider and was in the lead half a furlong from the winning line, when the horse that was actually leading with a jockey on board moved up nearly level. Seeing this the riderless horse put on a spurt to 'win' at the line. :)
Interesting selection for the Grand National Jack, I quite like another horse you mentioned Longhouse Poet.
For us, it's the flat that get's more of our attention so are looking forward to a great season ahead.
 

Non-Smoking Man

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Jack lambert
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No worries Alan..

Big day is here. Both my selections have stood their ground - makes a change from Cheltenham!

Gordon Elliot is desperate for a winner, any winner, let alone the winner of the Big One. He runs 7 at the last count, including my top tip Escaria Ten (who is a market drifter). If he wins it he becomes the foremost GN winning trainer.

Talking of the market, bookmakers are experiencing a ton of money from 'once-a-year-punters' for the grey mare Snow Leopardess and the Rachel Blackmore mount (The Minella horse) and this is distorting the market. My two have been friendless and gone bigger so Ive topped up @ 19 on ET and 65 on Two For Gold (whose chance on form was done no harm by Fakir D'Oudairies (his Ascot victor) scooting home at the meeting yesterday).

The latter, I note has won 10 of his 20 starts, has never fallen, was second in a Grade 1 and is 4lbs well in. It is amazing you can get 55 still with Betfair.
As esteemed broadcaster and analyst, Tom Segal has said a few times on the run up - you need a lot of luck in this race, especially on the first circuit.
If I dont win I hope you do Antonio..!

Jack NSM
 
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DIB

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As a once-a-year punter I'm taking onboard your comments Jack and hope to see a life changing amount of money coming my way later :)
 
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TIU

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I've had a bet on three horses on Ladbrokes and have little idea what it all means. 'Paying 6 places instead of 4'? 'Partial Cashout'?
 

Non-Smoking Man

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Jack lambert
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4 mins to the offtime and Ive just seen Escaria Ten exit the paddock and he LOOKS fine but he is drifting like a barge from 15 out to 38. In my experience it cant win..maybe he didnt travel over well, hasnt eaten up - but something is wrong.
He is the same prices as my other selection, Two For Gold@ 25.

Good luck everyone..

Jack
 

TIU

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No, I got a 6th place but cannot see my bet result on Ladbrokes. What does SUSP mean?
 

Non-Smoking Man

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Jack lambert
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Well..
1. Noble Yeats
2. Any Second
3. Delta Work
4. Santini

My two did ok - Two For Gold led them a merry dance and clearly should have been in the Topham and not the National, and Escaria Ten (totally unfancied by connections and the betting public) ran well up to a point but didnt get home. He had the same chance as the second having finished upsides last time out, but didnt stay as well. Had he stayed he would have been placed.

Hats off to the Waley-Cohens..commiserations to J.P. McManus whose Any Second WAS 'second' again.

Jack
 
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