NFL 2020-2021

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
RAMS V. SEAHAWKS.....After careful consideration, and an examination of the Rams roster, Ive decided the Rams are overpriced @ 2.6 in a 2-horse race against their divisional rivals the Seahawks. In the regular season they are 1 win each after all, so why are the Seahawks fav?

The short answer is the injury to Rams QB Jared Goff (and his erratic form?). He had surgery 2 weeks ago and is doubtful (but had limited weekday practice). Talk is he might start..

However, I remember when I successfully backed the Rams during the regular season I noted 2 key players for them - WR Cooper Kupp (the go-to receiver) and Cam Akers, their running back who was in great form at the time before injury struck. They are both fit and start.

The strength of the Rams defence is well known and Aaron Donald is a major figure - he too is fit. The Rams could get to the Seahawks QB and slow their offence down. Defences win wild card games. I think this game could go equally either way, maybe the Rams are a shade underdogs but @ 2.6 that's value and so that's the bet. I cant be bothered with the spread - which is 3.5, by the way.

Jack NSM

 

Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
1,015
283
118
Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
RAMS V. SEAHAWKS..... might be the most interesting game this weekend.

meanwhile, Washington is playing Saturday evening, just 8 miles from the Capitol.

meanwhile 2, Cleveland's COVID problems continue.

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Over/under betting:

This is new to me (from horseracing as a background) and I dont indulge as a rule. However, I DID bet an under (the total points) in a game involving Washington and I won. This was because Washington have an excellent defence but a shocker of an offence. So, they limit the scoring of the opposition by slowing them down but they cant score themselves - results in a lack of aggregate points.

Washington have the number 1 draft pick, Chase Young (number 99 on his shirt), their defensive end, who is a force to be reckoned with, against a static QB in Tom Brady (who hates to be rushed and harried). Brady is going to be stymied and sacked. And they will have to populate their offensive line to protect him, limiting their offensive options, personelwise.

It seems to me that the average over/under figure is around 44 - so in a balanced game of average offence and defence you expect 44 to be around the aggregate. But my argument is that this will be a dour struggle with limited scoring. Hence the bet is under 44.5.

Jack

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Could be a slippery game for the hawks..
And it was Phil, wasnt it..

The Rams defence was awesome. Aaron Donald, whose praises were sung all night long by the commentary team, led the 4 man (only) line really well, sacking Russell Wilson multiple times and whose pressure led to an interception and touchdown. Less said the better about the Rams offence. Their stand in QB got injured and Jared Goff played with 3 pins in a buggared digit with mixed results (to be charitable). He was reunited with Cam Akers (28 runs, 130 yds rushing) and Cooper Kupp, his main receiver and that led me to think mid game that they would pull off the upset.

Worryingly for Rams fans, Donald watched much of the 4th quarter from the sidelines, nursing what looked like bruised ribs, suffered when bringing down Wilson (who fell on him).

Jack

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Jackson 'gets that elusive first play-off game' to quote the U.S. commentator (20 - 13)

The Titans were first out of the blocks building a 10 - 0 lead with a TD and field goal aided by a Lamar Jackson interception on the Ravens 2nd play of the game. 'Here we go again' some were thinking but they roared back with 17 unanswered points. Jackson scored a solo TD and the Ravens defence restricted Derek Henry to zip pretty much.

The Titans got it back to a 3 point game, but by now the Ravens had emphasised they were the better all round team. Late in the 4th quarter Tannehill threw a TD to end their hopes.

I had a nice win as when the Ravens went 10 0 down I backed them again on the moneyline at 7/4 against to go with the -3.5 bet struck before the off.

I had the Rams but lost on the plus and minus Washington bet. 2/3 is acceptable.

The Ravens meet the Bills if the Browns win and the Chiefs if the Steelers win.

Jack

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Saints v. Bears.

This was 7 - 3 Saints for seems like decades and Saints lack of penetration constantly gave the underdog hope of snatching the result. A hapless receiver dropped a very fine Trubitsky throw in the endzone which was letting the Saints off the hook bigtime.

Despite this Chicago stayed in the game until the fourth quarter TD by the Saints - they werent helped by some stupid penalties and an unforgivable personal foul resulting in ejection for one Bear.

Saints wont go much further on this showing. Taysam Hill got a knock and sat out the latter part of the match.

Jack

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Browns 48 Steelers 37

Browns overcome Covid-related issues (including no Stefanski on the sidelines coaching) to beat the Steelers, having zoomed to a double digit lead in the first quarter. Their reward is a visit to Arrowhead Stadium to meet the Chiefs. That will be the end of their topsy turvy season most will suspect.

Instead of the Chiefs, the Ravens now get the Bills. Uhm...I'm not sure this is the easier game. The betting suggests it is (slightly) - after winning their wild card game and b4 the Browns result they were 10 to win the Superbowl, and 9.6 afterwards.

Jackson is still susceptible to an early interception from a throw, but they did show they can 1. win in the playoffs. and, 2., come from behind. They will be the underdogs versus the Bills. But, as was commented on, the Ravens offence is hard to defend against, especially when running the ball. And Lamar and his team have momentum. I wouldnt want snow as Jackson has been known to lose his footing (not evident Saturday).

I predict a Ravens v. Chiefs conference final.

In the NFC final I predict Tampa will meet Green Bay.

It was a terrific weekend of football.

Jack NSM

 
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Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
1,015
283
118
Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
In Cleveland, the Sun came up in the West this morning! (although it was rather cloudy)

The Brown's were playing with an improvised team. At least one of the player's had never practiced with the team.

Four visiting (lower ranked) teams won and for the outdoor games the weather was great.

But next weekend's outdoor weather , won't be great.

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
THE DIVISIONAL ROUND..

Rams @ Packers

Ravens @ Bills

Browns @ Chiefs

Buccs @ Saints

Uhm....choices..Rams need a healthy Aaron Donald and decent weather - neither is known, so PASS.

Ravens @ The Bills: probably the closest match up on paper; hard to call but I slightly favour the underdog (Ravens) against mrme's Bills, but no bet as I have already backed them to win the Conference and the Superbowl. If anything, gambling logic dictates that I should back the Bills as a hedge. PASS.

Browns cant beat the Chiefs, but everyone knows that so no edge..PASS.

Buccs (Brady) versus Saints (Drew Brees) offers the possibility of some value. Brady has a new lease of life whereas Drew Brees might be playing his last game in the NFL. The Saints price is based on their overall standing and reputation as one of the best, if not the best overall roster, however, from what I saw in the Wild card round they struggled and even their star RB, Kamara, was quiet. I think Tampa Bay who have a well organised offence (the offensive line has learnt how to protect their 'pocket' QB; Antonio Brown hasnt upset anyone and is coming nicely to the boil at the right time) and good defence are about as good an overall team as the Saints at the moment. I watched the Falcons game and the Bucks looked fit and slick. At 2.5 they are a steal (moneyline). I'm not bothering with the spread and the score is unpredictable.

Jack

 
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Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
1,015
283
118
Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
THE DIVISIONAL ROUND.....WEATHER

Rams @ Packers :: Wind, just a little snow and around freezing. (for Green Bay that's mild weather this time of year)

Ravens @ Bills :: about the same as Green Bay, Wind, just a little snow and around freezing. (for Buffalo that's mild weather this time of year)

Browns @ Chiefs  :: great weather. Sunny and warm 45F (7C).

Buccs @ Saints :: indoors

 

mr.me

Wammer
Wammer
Sep 2, 2009
4,748
549
0
Somewhere
AKA
John
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Ravens @ Bills :: about the same as Green Bay, Wind, just a little snow and around freezing. (for Buffalo that's mild weather this time of year)

I can vouch for that, it's more like a spring day  :)

 

philb36

Wammer
Wammer
Apr 5, 2007
811
37
58
biggin hill, Kent
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
THE DIVISIONAL ROUND..

Rams @ Packers

Ravens @ Bills

Browns @ Chiefs

Buccs @ Saints

Uhm....choices..Rams need a healthy Aaron Donald and decent weather - neither is known, so PASS.

Ravens @ The Bills: probably the closest match up on paper; hard to call but I slightly favour the underdog (Ravens) against mrme's Bills, but no bet as I have already backed them to win the Conference and the Superbowl. If anything, gambling logic dictates that I should back the Bills as a hedge. PASS.

Browns cant beat the Chiefs, but everyone knows that so no edge..PASS.

Buccs (Brady) versus Saints (Drew Brees) offers the possibility of some value. Brady has a new lease of life whereas Drew Brees might be playing his last game in the NFL. The Saints price is based on their overall standing and reputation as one of the best, if not the best overall roster, however, from what I saw in the Wild card round they struggled and even their star RB, Kamara, was quiet. I think Tampa Bay who have a well organised offence (the offensive line has learnt how to protect their 'pocket' QB; Antonio Brown hasnt upset anyone and is coming nicely to the boil at the right time) and good defence are about as good an overall team as the Saints at the moment. I watched the Falcons game and the Bucks looked fit and slick. At 2.5 they are a steal (moneyline). I'm not bothering with the spread and the score is unpredictable.

Jack
Ill go ..Packers, Bills, Chiefs and er go on Bucks!

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Tampa Bay's recent record:

In their last 6 games in the regular season (all wins) Tampa have scored 196 points averaging 32.7 points a game; Brady has thrown 16 TDs and only 2 interceptions in those games and in the 2 defeats that preceded that run of wins they only lost by a field goal to the Rams and Chiefs, both highly rated teams of course.

The Buccs are 3 point underdogs @ 2.06. Ive just made that bet to add to the bet @ 2.5 odds (6/4) on the moneyline.

The Saints will have to play as well as the Chiefs for me to lose this bet - that's what it amounts to.

Jack

 
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Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
1,015
283
118
Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Ravens @ Bills weather update.  They increased the possibility of Lake Effect Snow for the game. Lake Effect Snow is unpredictable, so the game could have an inch or more than a foot of new snow.

 

mr.me

Wammer
Wammer
Sep 2, 2009
4,748
549
0
Somewhere
AKA
John
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Buffalo has had a relatively mild winter so far so this could end up being quite a snow storm

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,423
1,323
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Bills and Packers through.

Packers made it because the Rams defence, that had got them this far, lost Aaron Donald through a rib injury in their previous game. Though he made the occasional apperance here he was carrying that injury. Ive had bruised ribs from a collision on the cricket field and you cant laugh and barely breathe without pain, let alone play in the NFL.

Jackson threw an interception in the Bills endzone which was returned for a touchdown at a point in the game when it could have gone either way. An injury retrieving a bad snap put him out of the game with concussion. Game over at the end of the third quarter.

I had 3 biggish bets to win the Superbowl: Titans, Cards and Ravens. QB injuries put paid to both  the latter and the third bet was knocked out by my own team when they were drawn together in the Wild Card Weekend. Didnt end well, but good fun as I was on at 50/1, 65/1 and 30/1 respectively.

Bills v. Packers in the Final anyone?

Jack NSM

 
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Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
1,015
283
118
Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
When the wind is blowing over 30MPH at the lake shore near Buffalo, it's hard to kick field goals or throw long passes.

It was too warm and too much wind for the Lake Effect Snow to start up.