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NFL 2020-2021

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
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Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
The joke division this year (because no team has a winning record) has been the NFC East which comprises Washington, Giants, Eagles, Cowboys. But this division presents a golden betting opportunity imo.

Standings, schedule and my predicted results:

Wash: 6-7 meet Hawks (L), Panthers (W), Eagles (L) finish 7-9

NY: 5-8 meet Browns (L), Ravens (L) Dallas (W)  finish 6-10

Eagles 4-8-1 meet Cards (W), Cowboys (W) Wash (W) finish 7-8-1

Dallas ..cant win.

The bet? Eagles to win the division - its all about identifying a rising star before its common knowledge and so I give you Jalen Hurts the new rookie Eagles QB. (I have 6.5 to win the div.)

Jack

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
WEEK 15

My value pick for week 15 is the Cleveland Browns to beat the Giants in new York by more than 5 points (the 'spread') @ 2.08 (slightly better than evens).

My reasoning is that the Giants QB, Daniel Jones, is banged up (ankle) and is immobile. This makes him easy meat for the opposition defence. He was sacked 5 times by the same player last week (Reddick of the Cards), a Franchise record. If he is benched his back up is Haskins who is useless.

On the other hand, the Browns are in fine form, taking the improved Ravens to the last 2 seconds in their previous game. Although the Giants have a decent defense it wont be enough to win them the game unless they get turnovers. Baker Mayfield is playing at his best. They also have an excellent running game via Kareem Hunt.

Its a Sunnday night game.

Jack NSM

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Seahawks visit Washington in week 15.

Washington's defence won them the game against the hitherto unbeaten Steelers, with rookie Chase Young outstanding. Te Washington 'D' will slow down the Seahawks offence and limit their points.

On the other hand Washington have doubts at QB with Alex Smith out injured partway thro their last game and the back up struggling.

So the bet is something Ive never done - Ive bet 'unders', i.e., total score < 44 points.

I envisage something like the 49ers game which totalled 38 points.

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Week 15

Patriots v. Dolphins

I dont fancy the Patriots. Their offence was non existent against the Rams: I only counted 5 x 1st downs in the highlights and Cam Newton was sacked 4 or 5 times. The Rams defence was even wise to Newton's best play in recent games the QB sneak and he was stopped on the line in the Rams game as well. The Patriots only scored 3 points! As to their defence the Patriots couldnt stop Akers the Rams running back.

For the Dolphins they only have to be average on both sides of the ball to win this. Tua is gradually getting the hang of the NFL (and all the pundits were raving about his second game) and as to the favourable stat that says Belichik is great against rookie QBs that was with Tom Brady.

The line is only 1.5 - I think Miami's superiority is greater than that. Tua threw for over 300X and 2 x TDs against the Chiefs last week and only lost by 6 points to the Champs. Its a lock for the Dolphins!

Jack

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
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Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
WEEK 15    Bears at the Vikings.

'All eyes will be on Dan Bailey' (the Vikings kicker) who missed 3 field goals and an extra point last time out. I saw the guy interviewed and he didnt seem that upset (he said he was embarrassed), though he has a good record and has put in extra practice.

The Vikings wont trust him and there could be some 4th downs...

Notwithstanding special teams the Vikings have an explosive offence with Justin Jefferson, Thielen receiving and Dalvin Cook running. Their QB is a better player than the Bears opposite number too.

Against that the Bears coach has a good record against the Vikings and especially against the run.

The spread is 3 points and I expect the Vikings to exceed that.

Jack NSM

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
It all comes down to injuries, COVID and lack of practice with the replacement players (and replacement coaches).
Not sure it all comes down to those 3 things Kevin - there remains 'form', match up and value (if you like a wager). There is enough continuity in fitness and team members being available for there to be some predictability.

When it comes to key players' injuries I very much agree - when deForest Buckner, the Colts defensive tackle, played against the Texans despite prior news that he wouldnt, I lost my bet. I knew he was key to the Colts chance.

Jack

 

Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
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Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Of course not, those are just the unknown factors that can change predictions a week or more down the road.

The Saturday games were dull (as expected). Luckily most US homes don't get the NFL TV channel.

 

Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
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Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
And for the play-off games weather can be a big factor at the outdoor fields.

Who would have thought that the Saturday games in Denver and Green Bay would have good football weather?

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
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Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
A word about J. Hurts, the back-up and now starter QB for the Eagles - Hurts is 'for real' (see how I'm getting the hang of the lingo :D ).

They ran a pretty much full strength Cardinals team (who would have been in contention for  their division w/o the shoulder injury to Murray) very close this morning. I watched the entire game and I wouldnt want either team against me anytime soon.

The Cards are the 7th seed in the NFC but if they lose to the 49ers next and Chicago win the Bears take that seed away on a tiebreaker.

The Cards defence are improving (remember the way they shut down the Seahawks in an earlier close game with Simmond getting the breakthrough interception) and Reddick had 5 sacks last week.
Jack NSM

 

Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
1,017
284
118
Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
As for weather, all of this weekend's outdoor games in cities that might have winter weather, had great December weather. Go figure.

But bad weather favors power teams rather than technical teams. Technical timing and defensive swaps don't work when everyone is slipping and sliding.

Did you make money on the Jets?

 

Speedskater

Wammer
Wammer
Nov 27, 2014
1,017
284
118
Cleveland, Ohio, USA
AKA
Kevin Graf
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
In the AFC conference there are still 8 teams trying to make 7 playoff spots.

In the NFC conference there are still 7 teams trying to make 6 playoff spots and 3 or 4 teams trying for 1 spot.

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Cards v. 49ers Week 16           Bearing in mind the Cards are well aware of the above situation they will be treating this as a Play - Off type game and will be pumped up for it. They have momentum from the win against the rejuvenated Eagles and their starte QB, Kyler Murray is back to full fitness. They beat the 49ers in Week 1 and they will do so again here because the 49ers have less to play for now (5-8 record) then they did then. (Oddly enough both sides are at home as the 49ers are playing in Arizona due to Covid restrictions in Cal.)

I think the spread @ 3.5 (Cards fav.) is a gift to the freescoring Cards offence.

Mullens, the stand in QB for San Francisco is not as bad as I have read in the press. He did make a few rash throws in of the 2 recent game highlights I watched but that was when the game was on the line late on. He is no pushover as he does have an arm.

If I was a 49ers fan I would be more worried about our secondary.

Cards win by 7.

Jack NSM

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
As indicated above I have to pick the Eagles over their divisional rivals the Dallas Cowboys in this week 16 match up.

Its all about Jalen Hurts: he is fresh, he is fit and uninjured and has something to prove; further, the Eagles could still make a run at winning their division so there is loads of incentive there at a time when some losing teams who cannot make the play offs are looking to the next draft and might be taking their eye off the ball.. He's in good form and the offence is scoring points (including a contribution from the running back Myles Sanders).

The Eagles looked fired up under Hurts and I expect them to show too much verve for Dallas.

I think 1.87 is good value. Im not resorting to the spread here.

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
As for weather, all of this weekend's outdoor games in cities that might have winter weather, had great December weather. Go figure.

But bad weather favors power teams rather than technical teams. Technical timing and defensive swaps don't work when everyone is slipping and sliding.

Did you make money on the Jets?
No I left the game alone.

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
My third play in week 16 is the Bills -7 and -7.5 against the Patriots @ around evens and 5/4 respectively.

That's a big spread, but the Patriots, led by Cam Newton, have only scored an aggregate of 15 points in their last 2 games. And that was when they still had play-off hopes. Now they havent so they have no incentive to fight. Their QB is a peacock whom I dont fancy for a rearguard action.

The Bills, on the other hand, are flying and only this week, in one of the  'power ranking' websites, have been promoted to 2nd in the list.

Imagine if the Bills win the toss and go down to score a TD in their first drive - could the Patriots match them point for point for the remainder of the game coming from behind? No.

Jack NSM

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
So, in week 16 I'm with the Cards, Eagles and Bills so far.

I am now adding the Titans to beat the Packers @ 2.66.

I do think the Packers could win this and I equally think they could lose it. Ive been watching the Packers recent games, particularly the Panthers game. Bridgewater lost the ball in the Red Zone and in the eventual Packers drive they scored a TD. That could easily not have happened in which case the Panthers might have won it. Aaron Rodgers was sacked at least twice and the Panthers got a lot of penetration on a defence that's ranked only around 25 in the league. I was keeping close watch on whether the Packers could stop the run bearing in mind they have one of the top 2 running backs to withstand, namely Derrick Henry.

I wasnt satisfied they will stop Henry and whilst the Titans' defence is equally lowly rated I'm getting nearly 7/4 my money in a 2 horse race - that's value.

Plus the Titans have more to gain being involved in a head to head with their divisional rivals, the Colts, who are playing well.

Titans to win by a smidgeon in a highscoring shoot out. (I looked at the 'overs' but the Book was well ahead of me and it is obvious that its going to be a big score - the overs is set at 55!)

Jack NSM

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
Wammer
Mar 31, 2009
5,567
1,505
158
Chichester W. Sussx.
AKA
Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
Would it be that surprising if a QB didnt win the season MVP award?

At the moment (2 games to go) Patrick Mahomes is way out in front in the betting @ 1.28 (that's 30/100 in old money). Next up is Aaron Rodgers @ 5.3 (nearly 9/2) and third fanciied is Josh Allen @14 (13/1).

Derrick Henry is around 33/1 and next best. Does that seem big? I think it does. It is big because everyone knows a QB always wins it (Lamar Jackson last season for example); and Mahomes is the best (always finds a way to win etc.,). But Mahomes is getting sacked and they are not winning by that much.

In Henry's favour is that he is approaching the milestone of 2000 yds carry in a season - that will carry some weight. He will get a chance to press his case when the Titans face the Packers this weekend. If the Packers lose and Rodgers doesnt have a good game and looks bad (possible) and Derrick Henry has a stormer (against a defence rated around 25th (probable) that could knock Rodgers out of the picture and advance Henry's claims considerably. And if he makes 2000 yds in week 17 he could be down to half his current odds .That is a great trading scenario if one so chose to do. I threw £4 at Henry @ 36 to win £140.

Jack NSM

 
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