NFL 2020-2021

Non-Smoking Man

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Chichester W. Sussx.
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Jack lambert
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WEEK 16 Results..

Arizona put up a tepid show against the 49ers. Their offensive line gave away too many penalties, Arnold dropped a 40 yarder which would have put the Cards close to the Red Zone and the defence, though getting some 3 and outs allowed too many yards on the ground. Further ,the 49ers were there to win and not lie down.

In the other game last night Miami won a nailbiter against the Raiders. This hasnt done the Ravens chances of a Wild Card any good - they needed Miami to lose. Now they are hoping the Colts get beaten - and the other part of it is they have to win both their remaining games.

Jack

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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The Steelers played well in a comeback win against the Colts and shored up their Superbowl stock after a bad run of losses. The Colts were edged out in the race for a Wild Card spot and their loss did the Ravens and the Titans a favour.

Ravens look sure to make the playoffs, but the Titans in going down to the Packers in the snow must win their final game to ensure a berth. They play the Texans from their own division in week 17.

The injury to the Rams's QB Jared Goff's thumb (unfortunate for him), sustained in a collision with  a Seahawks helemet needs surgery and he must be questionable for the week 17 game against the Cardinals.

Kyler Murray's Cards must win to stand a chance of the NFC 7th seed and their fate is tied in with that of the Bears.

As I understand it the Cards are through if they beat the Rams and the Bears lose to the Packers.

Whilst the NFL's legion of pundits, dwarfing that of British soccer in numbers and knowhow, continue to sing Patrick Mahomes's praises, his form and that of his offensive line has clearly dipped. I dont fancy the holders to win the big one despite cashing in on last season's great victory over the 49ers.

Ravens to win the AFC and make the Superbowl..?

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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Jack lambert
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Arizona injury list post week 16:

The big scare for the Cards is the leg injury QB Kyler Murray sustained in the final drive - at one point it looked like both the Rams and Cards would have their starter QBs inactive, but now it appears that after evaluation Murray's injury is light and he will start. Chase Edmonds, also injured, is less likely to be fit to play. Goff is having surgery and will not play. The balance has shifted to a Cards win.

According to the NFL official site both the Bears and the Cards progress if they win - so its not one or the other anymore.

General news and views:

Bills are playing with a lot of confidence but their receivers did drop 2 catches early doors which they cannot afford to do against better opposition if they are to progress.

The AFC looks the stronger conference and there are some awesome games in store. Week 17 is like a Wild Card round in itself with all of my remaining teams (Titans, Ravens and Cards) in  must-win games. I would love the Cards to make it through to have an interest on the NFC side of things, though they are neither good enough nor healthy enough to get any further (one and out, as they say).

As everyone knows apart from the winners of the conferences (bye week) the rule is the highest seeds play the lowest seeds in the play offs. We will soon see projections of the future match ups. There are some soft touches  e.g., the winners of the NFCEast, and the Steelers are not guaranteed to get much further having proved somewhat one dimensional in recent games. Further the Chiefs look shakey..or are they sandbagging and able to raise their game when the chips are down (remember the final against the 49ers)?

Hugely intoxicating, and more drama to come...wuhoo! (as my daughter would say..)

Jack NSM

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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Taking the AFC , for the uninitiated:

No 1 seed Kansas bye

7th seed v. 2nd seed    likely -  Browns v. Bills

6th seed v. 3rd seed      likely  - Ravens v. Steelers

5th seed v. 4th seed      likely  -  Dolphins v.  Titans

In the past home field advantage was significant but not this year re the (absence of) fans, but you wouldnt want to be visiting Green Bay in the snow as the unfortunate Titans found out..but the AFC dont have to worry about that..yet..

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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Jack lambert
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'Tanking' is the name given to non-trying in the NFL when you are out of the play offs. It happens because of the handicapping system whereby the teams with the worst record get the hottest players in the college draft. There is no incentive for such teams to try - though some try out of pride and to maintain morale (49ers against the Cards for example).

This is my first season of full involvement in the NFL so I dont know how rife it is. But the last game of the season is when its most likely so I cant invest with any confidence. There are some crucial games where teams' futures are in the balance.

I have had a bet already this week but its not an individual game: Ive laid (backed against) the Chiefs to win the AFC (@ evens). I dont think they are playing as well as the Bills nor the Ravens and even the Titans (with no snow) could give them a run for their money. Of course the Chiefs could win it (and the Superbowl) but its all about the probability/odds. They are not an even money shot in my judgement.

Jack NSM

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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Jack lambert
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Im scoring 8 winning bets out of 12.

Adding one in week 17: I like the Cowboys -2 against the Giants @ evens. ( I was impressed by their offence against the Eagles and the QB did quite well. The Giants have a solid defence but the Cowboys look to be finding some confidence and I like the 'line'.)

Jack

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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More of week 17:

Ive bet the Cowboys to win their division. They have to beat the Giants and the Eagles have to beat Washington the following day.

 Washington's chances  hinge on their  three key injured players: Alex Smith @ QB; Antonio Gibson (toe)offence and Terry McClaurin their top wide receiver and only deep threat (ankle).

They have mostly skipped practice and the coaches are talking positively but there is considerable doubt all 3 will be fully effective. Smith has to play for them to have a good chance as they only have Taylor Heinicke as back up and his record is played 1, lost 1.

Washington will lack nothing for motivation as its win and you're in, whereas the Eagles are already out. Mike Florio on 'Around The NFL' claims the Eagles will want to go out with a win to boost their new QB, Jalen Hurts, and to ensure  the coach can keep his job. Alternatively they could be looking at their position in next year's draft. I hope they give it everything.

The Steelers are manouvring to lose to the Browns so they can play them in the first play off game (they are already in). They are resting key players to that end. They will be able to study the Browns who are weaker opposition than they might otherwise meet.

In the AFC there is a plethora of 10-4 teams who must win to get in. They are all hot favourites but there are no guarantees...

Jack

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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Searching for a value bet in a meaningful game in week 17 ('meaningful' as in both teams have something to gain), I find myself drawn to the Packers in Chicago. The Packers need the win to secure the Conference win, a bye, and HOMEFIELD ADVANTAGE. (Their record at home is vg and its weather-related.)  And the Bears still have an outside chance of a play off berth (need Arizona loss).

The Packers were flattered by the win v. the Titans due to the snow but here they are away from Lambeau Field today. Further they are missing David Bakhtiari (knee), their ProBowl left side offensive tackle. With 69 on his shirt I just watched Bakhtiari in 3 or 4 weeks highlights and he only missed one tackle in those images. Also out is defensive lineman Kingsley Keke.  The Bears defence could get after Rodgers in the light of the Bakhtiari absence.

Bears are 2.96 underdogs on the moneyline and that will do me. The line is 4.5.

Jack NSM

 

mr.me

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It was not my take on the game  Packers v Titans. I don't think the snow was a big factor, they were just outplayed by Greenbay. Wether the Bears can overcome them might be another matter.

 

Speedskater

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So today (Sunday) will be the final say of the regular season. With 16 games in a 10 hour period, this is the only week when all the games are played on the same day.

14 teams advance to the playoffs. Today will determine who plays whom and what teams get home field advantage.

But COVID and injuries will be the main topics of conversation before and during the games.

The evening game may determine which team with a losing record gets home field.

 

lower bullens

NSNO Wammer
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The joke division this year (because no team has a winning record) has been the NFC East which comprises Washington, Giants, Eagles, Cowboys. But this division presents a golden betting opportunity imo.

Standings, schedule and my predicted results:

Wash: 6-7 meet Hawks (L), Panthers (W), Eagles (L) finish 7-9

NY: 5-8 meet Browns (L), Ravens (L) Dallas (W)  finish 6-10

Eagles 4-8-1 meet Cards (W), Cowboys (W) Wash (W) finish 7-8-1

Dallas ..cant win.

The bet? Eagles to win the division - its all about identifying a rising star before its common knowledge and so I give you Jalen Hurts the new rookie Eagles QB. (I have 6.5 to win the div.)

Jack
More of week 17:

Ive bet the Cowboys to win their division. They have to beat the Giants and the Eagles have to beat Washington the following day.

 Washington's chances  hinge on their  three key injured players: Alex Smith @ QB; Antonio Gibson (toe)offence and Terry McClaurin their top wide receiver and only deep threat (ankle).

They have mostly skipped practice and the coaches are talking positively but there is considerable doubt all 3 will be fully effective. Smith has to play for them to have a good chance as they only have Taylor Heinicke as back up and his record is played 1, lost 1.

Washington will lack nothing for motivation as its win and you're in, whereas the Eagles are already out. Mike Florio on 'Around The NFL' claims the Eagles will want to go out with a win to boost their new QB, Jalen Hurts, and to ensure  the coach can keep his job. Alternatively they could be looking at their position in next year's draft. I hope they give it everything.

The Steelers are manouvring to lose to the Browns so they can play them in the first play off game (they are already in). They are resting key players to that end. They will be able to study the Browns who are weaker opposition than they might otherwise meet.

In the AFC there is a plethora of 10-4 teams who must win to get in. They are all hot favourites but there are no guarantees...

Jack
It turns out you were right about Dallas in December Jack. The Dolphins are out ( at time of writing, I’m watching The Colts just in case ) but it’s been a decent season overall.

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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It turned out Washington won the NFCEast but Dallas should have won their game against the Giiants. The Giants hit a 50 yard field goal to go 4 points up, requiring Dallas to get a TD on their next and final drive.

However, the catch that got them that field position wasnt caught - the receiver used the ground to stabilise the ball in his hands. The umpires called it a catch and Dallas, who should have an observer upstairs monitoring the footage and in communication with McCarthy the head coach, did not challenge. The field goal duly sailed over.

They should have had to punt and Dallas should have only needed a field goal to win. On that drive they reached the red zone with relative ease and would have had a chip shot to win the game.Instead there were turned back by the Giants defence and lost the game. It all hinged on that call. Tragic.

I backed Dallas to win that game though the Eagles loss to Washington meant they wouldnt have won the division.

Another unfortunate outcome for me was that the field goal that hit the upright and bounced IN for the Titans in OT meant that the 2 teams i have going through now meet each in the wild card round..hohum..(Ravens @ Titans).

Washington will be cannon fodder in the play offs.

D. Henry achieved 2000 yds rushing in a division winning team which saw him shorten to 8/1 for the MVP award; however, traditionally a QB gets this and with Mahomes's patchy form and missing the final game' Aaron Rodgers is a shoe in, innit?

Green Bay secured home field advantage which is huge for them. However, if they win through to the final they will find themselves in Florida...

Jack NSM

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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Jack lambert
HiFi Trade?
  1. No
POWER RANKINGS

All the major stats and punditry do their own 'power rankings'. On this side of the Atlantic we just have the league tables in soccer and form 'ratings' in horseracing. They are just numbers games.

Power rankings are just rankings - the word 'power' is superfluous and arguably just adds a bit of machismo to it all.

These are my rankings based on my opinion of recent form. I get to see most of most of the games on my Bet365 website. Mike Florio and his sidekick, Simms would say I was recent form 'biased'. Ive learnt its recent form that wins races.

Here are my top 8 entering the Play offs (feel totally free to disagree - which you will)

Co top: Bills, Packers (with homefield) and Chiefs;

Joint 4th : Ravens, Saints;

Joint 6th : Bucks, Seahawks;

8th: Steelers

In the AFC the odds are that the Chiefs will NOT make the Superbowl in Tampa, Florida. The probability in my view is that either the Bills or the Ravens will see to that.

Jack NSM

 

Speedskater

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Is there a 'pick 6' for wildcard weekend?

5 of the games should be easy, baring more COVID and injuries.

Only the Rams - Seahawks games is in doubt.

 

Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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I agree most games should go to the favourites. One underdog you could fancy on the stats are the Titans.The Ravens  are 0 out of 2 in the play offs with Jackson at the helm and on top of that they face their nemesis -  Tennessee beat them in the divisional round last year despite being 10 point underdog. Jackson threw an interception that bounced off his receivers hands on the first (or early drive) and then Tannerhill threw a missile deep into Ravens territory for another (if memory serves). They never ecovered their composure after that...

J

 
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Speedskater

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Just announced that my local team has a new COVID problem!  Head coach, two other coaches and two players test positive. Tests show three different strains. 

 
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MVJ

A Rob Burrow MND charity supporter.
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Just announced that my local team has a new COVID problem!  Head coach, two other coaches and two players test positive. Tests show three different strains. 
Just announced that my local team has a new COVID problem!  Head coach, two other coaches and two players test positive. Tests show three different strains. 
Thats really scary Kevin😱

 

Speedskater

Wammer
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Kevin Graf
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And Cleveland is not one of the COVID hot spots.  The local hospitals just resumed overnight elective surgery.

I watched 5 of the NFL Sunday games and several of the collage bowl football games and there was a general lack of COVID due diligence.

 
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Non-Smoking Man

Wammer
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Chichester W. Sussx.
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Jack lambert
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WILD CARD WEEKEND: Ravens @ the Titans..

Ive struggled to find an edge this coming weekend. But I keep coming back to what I know - the Ravens and the Titans. I have backed them at long odds antepost to win the Final and so i have been watching their progress from week 1.

I was also with the Ravens to win the Superbowl last year when they came a cropper against these Titans in the divisional round. I think that's one key to unlock this, the closest of the Wild Card match-ups.

Lamar Jackson that day was totally fired up and playing out of his skin, but in their first drive he threw a bomb at his receiver who should have leapt into the air and caught it. Instead (we find out subsequently), as a result of him carrying an ankle injury he failed to meet the ball and it flew off his hands to a waiting Titan, who gleefully zoomed off upfield. Then Tannerhill in the Titans drive threw a terrific long ball to an unmarked receiver for a TD.

After that the Ravens, who had never been behind all season, certainly in their last six or so games, were playing catch up and panicked somewhat with Jackson throwing 2 more interceptions.

All of that is not going to repeat itself. The Ravens will have studied that game and they are going to RUN the ball for the first few downs as a safety measure. They know that the Titans rank only 19th in the league against the run and in J.K. Dobbins they have a tricky RB who is on fire and scored 2 TDs in their rout of the bengals.

The Titans also excel in  a run offence, with Derek Henry achieving 2000 yards carry this season. But the Ravens Defence is pretty good, better than that of the Titans, who have to contend with the deep catching threat of Marquise Brown as well as the run. The Titans have to respect the throw and that will compromise their defence.

If the Ravens win the toss and get into the Red Zone without mishap on their opening drive I think the game will be half over. At the 3.5 spread I'm gambling that the Ravens will gain their revenge on that 2020 divisional defeat. They must protect the ball and play to their strengths. If they find themselves in a slugfest they have Lamar Jackson's legs to get them out of trouble.

Jack