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3 hours ago, hifinutt said:

interesting article , maybe he will provide even more beds for those that will catch covid 19 if we suspended civil liberties 

o put it simply, we do not know how many lives ventilators could or will save in the UK. It seems that at least two-thirds of attempts to stave off death with their use will fail in the short term. Of the remaining third, we do not know how many will be successful in the medium or long term. This doesn’t quite seem like a convincing rationale to shut down the British economy, redirect previous manufacturing output towards ventilators and suspend civil liberties to give us more time for the attempt. And those bemoaning the government's failure to demand more and more ventilators should pause for a moment and ask themselves whether that is really the right solution.

And the alternative is what? Do nothing.

The latest ICNARC report says: They examined 2249 patients admitted to ICU, 346 patients have died, 344 patients were discharged alive from critical care and 1559 patients were last reported as still being in critical care. Not quite what has been reported.

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The uncertainty is unsettling. The IHME is predicting that coronavirus deaths in the UK could account for 40% of the European total (due to the initial 'herd immunity' plan). Meanwhile, Trump is planning to defeat the virus by breeding unicorns and getting them to shit rainbows on it*.

*I may have made up the unicorns bit.

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Posted (edited)

I think HiFiNut has a point - however controversial

It seems that those requiring ventilation require it for considerably longer periods than is normally the case in, say, a medically induced coma. There's also the possibility, according to some, that recovery from that critical intensive care, can leave permanent issues such as scarring of the lungs.

Most certainly there will be many who, maybe in their fifties like me, would do anything to have a chance - maybe because of family and loved ones. It does strike me however, as an extreme load on the NHS which many would humanely forego. I would most certainly sign a DNR and refuse to take up those facilities knowing just how many professionals are required in the hope that a human being might come out of it - regardless of long term damage. My wife would be distraught. I would hope that she would understand though.

It is one of those times when voluntary euthanasia springs to my own mind. No I don't expect everyone to feel the same - of course not. Those who favour it though (and they are apparently of sound mind when admitted) should surely be given the option should they prefer to lessen the load and to pass away in peace and in comfort at a time of their choosing.

Believe it or not, it might also lessen the level of stress that loved ones and friends have to go through. That is just a guess based on my own experience but I know that I had friends coming to sit by a bed on an organised rota for ages. They all came when I was being brought out, they had to do that twice and were emotional wrecks. When intubated on barbs, you know nothing. Even today, none of the times bother me in the slightest. Your loved ones just suffer day in day out.

I appreciate that there will be those here who will find that suggestion repulsive for personal or religious reasons and that is their right. This is in no way intended to offend them. Having the option available however seems to be only too kind for those who would choose it.

Edited by Tune

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6 hours ago, AntA said:

The BMW ones are great but the indicator lights don't work and are usually found right up the patients rear end. 

hmmm that's much more Audi these days.

Personally only a Porsche one will do

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Personally, I'd choose a Kia ventilator every time. 

Average performance, but a great warranty. Also avoids the ignominy of being identified as a 'BMW breather'. 

Or maybe a Vauxhall - a bit shit, but you can get a one year old used one for about 60% of new price. And you get to pretend you 'bought British'. 

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Posted (edited)

There is I suppose the possibility though that a vauxhall one might burst into flames when nobody is looking. A Tesla one would be environmentally friendly, but would probably run out of power at an unfortunate moment. I think I'd probably prefer Volvo or SAAB. A touch ugly, but would keep going no matter what. Kia ones might depend on their satnav, which experience suggests would be a bad idea because they'd end up at the wrong bedside.

Edited by rabski

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49 minutes ago, Tune said:

I think HiFiNut has a point - however controversial

I wasn't meaning to sound like I was dismissing the views in that Spectator article by the way, with the doctor obviously raising important considerations. But there is a big jump from the clinical concerns to the lockdown being pointless, or indeed concluding putting any patients on ventilators is pointless.

This is off-topic but I am in favour of euthanasia in general terms in that I'd like to have the right to be able to choose when to end my own life. 

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Posted (edited)

The only problem I have with the concept of euthanasia, is the nag factor. You know what I mean - when your kids are young, you drag them round the supermarket and they are always on at you to buy them stuff. 'Dad, please buy some Frosties. Pleeease'.

Well, when they get older, that becomes 'Dad, you're a terrible burden on the family. Please hurry up and die so we can have your house. Pleeeease'.

The next thing you know, you're dribbling into your soup, telling some nurse that you're old and useless and don't want to carry on any more.

I am only half joking.

Edit: My kids would never do that to me - because I will have spent their inheritance on hookers and Werther's Originals long before then.

Edited by horace
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7 hours ago, horace said:

The only problem I have with the concept of euthanasia, is the nag factor. You know what I mean - when your kids are young, you drag them round the supermarket and they are always on at you to buy them stuff. 'Dad, please buy some Frosties. Pleeease'.

Well, when they get older, that becomes 'Dad, you're a terrible burden on the family. Please hurry up and die so we can have your house. Pleeeease'.

The next thing you know, you're dribbling into your soup, telling some nurse that you're old and useless and don't want to carry on any more.

I am only half joking.

Edit: My kids would never do that to me - because I will have spent their inheritance on hookers and Werther's Originals long before then.

I actually think the opposite could often be the case: children not wanting to lose their parents whilst the elderly having frankly had enough. It's a phenomenally complicated issue though.

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13 hours ago, horace said:

The uncertainty is unsettling. The IHME is predicting that coronavirus deaths in the UK could account for 40% of the European total (due to the initial 'herd immunity' plan). Meanwhile, Trump is planning to defeat the virus by breeding unicorns and getting them to shit rainbows on it*.

*I may have made up the unicorns bit.

The problem with this US organisation's estimates is that the UK has not reached its peak yet so their estimates have huge uncertainity.

They estimate that the deaths for the UK could be 66,314 with a lower estimate of 14,573 and an upper estimate of 219,211. That is a huge range and very uncertain. Some other European countries have much, much lower lower and upper estimates as they have reached the peak and the estimates are more certain and smaller. One of the problems in comparing different countries at different stages of the disease. 

Can't provide any data on the second comment but it has some truth to it.

       
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37 minutes ago, George 47 said:

The problem with this US organisation's estimates is that the UK has not reached its peak yet so their estimates have huge uncertainity.

They estimate that the deaths for the UK could be 66,314 with a lower estimate of 14,573 and an upper estimate of 219,211. That is a huge range and very uncertain. Some other European countries have much, much lower lower and upper estimates as they have reached the peak and the estimates are more certain and smaller. One of the problems in comparing different countries at different stages of the disease. 

Can't provide any data on the second comment but it has some truth to it.

       

As always, "prediction is difficult, especially about the future".

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12 hours ago, rabski said:

There is I suppose the possibility though that a vauxhall one might burst into flames when nobody is looking. A Tesla one would be environmentally friendly, but would probably run out of power at an unfortunate moment. I think I'd probably prefer Volvo or SAAB. A touch ugly, but would keep going no matter what. Kia ones might depend on their satnav, which experience suggests would be a bad idea because they'd end up at the wrong bedside.

Of course an Alfa one would have superb engineering, but the bodywork would disintegrate into a pile of rust about 5 minutes after unpacking it.

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11 hours ago, horace said:

Edit: My kids would never do that to me - because I will have spent their inheritance on hookers and Werther's Originals long before then.

'Will have'?

Amateur :whistle:

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2 hours ago, rabski said:

'Will have'?

Amateur :whistle:

Don't want to give the game away to early, as I'll need some cards to play when they start looking at care homes... 

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Super Wammer
13 hours ago, horace said:

The only problem I have with the concept of euthanasia, is the nag factor. You know what I mean - when your kids are young, you drag them round the supermarket and they are always on at you to buy them stuff. 'Dad, please buy some Frosties. Pleeease'.

Well, when they get older, that becomes 'Dad, you're a terrible burden on the family. Please hurry up and die so we can have your house. Pleeeease'.

The next thing you know, you're dribbling into your soup, telling some nurse that you're old and useless and don't want to carry on any more.

I am only half joking.

Edit: My kids would never do that to me - because I will have spent their inheritance on hookers and Werther's Originals long before then.

Told my daughter , the first time someone has to wipe my bum I shall be at the bottom of beachy head..having downed are large bottle of whisky and the biggest spliff ever, foot on brake till I lose consciousness .. my sony SCD777ES  will be in the boot to give the fiat a bit more momentum with the added weight.

If it happens to Diane before me I shall make sure she has her seat belt on..and hazard lights flashing as she would still be a danger to others..

Kindest regards Julian 

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