Non-Smoking Man

NFL 2020-2021

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I watched some games last night via my Bet365 'in play' facility whereby if you a customer (under certain conditions) you can watch for free. Its a small section of the screen I hasten to add.

Dallas really scared the Steelers in this one. Their new QB, Gilbert, (not sylphlike) played a controlled game and they found themselves in front for most of the early part of the game. Rothlesburger took a knock, but returned to the field. Injury is an issue with the big man. (As a punter I was hoping Dallas would hold on as that would put my Superbowl hope, the Ravens, (who had already won) in line for the division and homefield advantage. But it wasnt to be.

The Dolphins surprised the Cardinals. Kyler Murray spilling it to give away 7 points in the first minute was not a great start but they fought back well. Their kicker missed a 48 yd field goal to tie the game and go into extra time. One news agency said the Cards should have won and watching some highlights I have to agree. All 4 teams in the NFC West lost their last games. If Arizona had won they would be effectively tied for the Division lead. Haruumph!

We have a Bills supporter on here - good job!

Jack

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It was a sack-fumble with Ogbah punching the ball out that led to The Dolphins first TD, and the defence were vital again at 31-31 when they stopped The Cardinals on a 4th down. Tua had a lot more to do this week and played well.We’ve done Seattle a favour beating the other 3 NFC West teams in this season’s divisional match-up , pity they couldn’t repay us and beat The Bills.

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Why the Cardinals will win the NFC West..

The Cardinals have a relatively easy run in schedule and the division leaders the Seahawks' defence is poor - one of the worst in the League ( ref.Shannon Sharpe).

As one of Carole Ahearn's comedy characters use to say - 'simple as that'.

The cards play the Bills next and are favourites to beat them (at home)' then its

Seahawks (whom they have beaten already)

Patriots

Rams

Giants

Eagles,

49ers (beaten them in the opening match of the season when 49ers healthy)

Rams.

The key, and Kingsbury and Kyler Murray are well aware of this, are the divisional games - if they beat the Rams its a double wammy as they deprive divisional opponents of points whilst elevating themselves. (Of course if you rate the Rams that works against the cards.) I think Kyler Murray is relishing having the team's 'destiny' (as the Americans call it - though that is crass misuse of the term) in his own hands.

The Seahawks are not playing well as a whole and Russell Wilson (QB) is showing poor judgement and throwing interceptions, yet they are odds on favourites to win the division. Tha's because they have a better record, but as i pointed out that streak was built on playing teams with a losing record. They are now being found out. They could be in for a slump. Whereas the Cards are improving.

Cards have the biggest points difference at the moment in the division come a tie.

I dont want to encourage anyone to bet, far from it, but i am aa betting man and 5.9 Arizona to win the NFC West looks a steal to me. Ive thereby increased my bet to win £300. Before the Miami loss they were around 5/4 to win the division and now are 5/1 despite having a chance to win that game and playing as well as Miami ( a coming force) in it.

Have to beat the Bills though this week. its a biggie and should be fun to watch. Will the Cards defence hold up against Josh Allen?

Jack NSM

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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News: Steelers QB Ben Rothlesburger is on the Covid 19 list and may/will miss practice and possibly the game against the Bengals. This will affect the odds when news spreads.

Ive been looking for a good excuse to oppose them in the market as, whilst they are unbeaten, they looked shaky against Dallas, a comparitively weak team at present. I thought about backing the Bengals to beat them this week and I took 3.05 to small money as the Bengals impressed against my Titans. Also I bet the Ravens to nick the division at 3.8. My reasoning is that if they played each other tomorrow the Ravens would beat the Steelers (they have the better QB) and in a couple of weeks time they do actually meet and I fancy the Ravens to win that. And the Steelers meet the Bills in December - they could lose that one too.

The other thing about the Steelers is that Ben Rothlesburger is injury prone. He took a knock and left the field for a time against Dallas.

Jack NSM

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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I'm working my own corner in the NFL, but what do the other NFL fans think about the week 10 match-ups and the top teams?

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Just now, Non-Smoking Man said:

I'm working my own corner in the NFL, but what do the other NFL fans think about the week 10 match-ups and the top teams?

I'm not really following the NFL too closely this year aside from the Giants, but the Giants better beat the Eagles this week after they handed the Eagles the win in their last matchup a few weeks ago.  >:(  The Giants seem to have no problems beating Washington, but I don't think they've beaten the Cowboys or Eagles since 2016.  :o  And, really, wins against the Eagles have been rare for the Giants since about 2001 or so.  :S

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But Wenz is so chancey that you could pull this off.

How well would you say the Giants are playing? What are their strengths and weaknesses?

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1 hour ago, Non-Smoking Man said:

But Wenz is so chancey that you could pull this off.

How well would you say the Giants are playing? What are their strengths and weaknesses?

The Giants are very well coached.  Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who I believe is either a Yale or Harvard graduate, is doing a great job mixing up his coverages and causing confusion for the opposing quarterbacks.  The strategy is not so complicated that the players can't implement it as well which is good.  Their strength is most certainly their defensive line.  Leonard Williams is having a great season.  Dalvin Tomlinson and Dexter Lawrence are very good as well.  Middle linebacker Blake Martinez  is outstanding this year as well.  Unfortunately, the Giants have very little pass rush since they do not have any highly skilled outside edge rushers.  This is leading to the secondary, which has many injuries, to get exposed (though good strategy is helping to mitigate this somewhat).  The stout D-line helps cut off opposing team's running games on 1st and 2nd downs, but then the pass rush/secondary deficiencies allows other teams to complete 3rd down passing opportunities.  Nonetheless, the defense plays well at times and is stronger than the offense.

Offensively, Giants' quarterback Daniel Jones seems to have regressed in his second year after a nice rookie season.  He has some of the same problems Wentz has, but Jones also has a tendency to fumble the ball when he gets hit even though he is quite athletic.  :dunno:  The Giants' most talented receiver is probably TE Evan Engram, but he's prone to mental mistakes.  The Giants' offensive line, which was quite bad to start the year, seems to be gaining traction.  The young players are playing better and the running game is improving even without Saquon Barkley.  If Daniel Jones can improve his play, I think the offense might be at least league average.  As it is, it's a bit of a struggle. 

Without doubt, the Giants have some of the best special teams in the league.  That's not a surprise given head coach Joe Judge's background as a special teams coach.  Scottish born kicker Graham Gano is probably the best kicker in the league right now.

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Tampa Bay were being heralded as the best team in their conference, but they were taken apart by the Saints last time and now take on the Panthers in week 10 @ Carolina.

The betting favours the Bucks (1/2) over the Panthers (2/1), but are they that superior (the points spread is 4.5)?

Having watched the highlights of the Panthers' last three games I dont think so. They went down narrowly to the Saints in one of those and look what the Saints did to Tampa. Further, they were competitive against the Falcons (though they lost) and were within 3 points of beating the Superbowl favourites, the Chiefs in a game that went down to the wire. Significantly, they had Christian (and he is) Mcaffrey back against the Chiefs and he is a differencemaker. He had a terrific game against the Chiefs. However I read that a shoulder injury will prevent him taking the field on Sunday - that's a blow to their chances.

The market seems to have been framed on the 2 teams record (Panthers 3  -  6, Tampa 6 - 3) and not current form. Bridgewater is useful at QB and is quite adventurous plus they have a useful receiver in Samuel. Even without Mcaffrey Panthers represent value.

I take the Panthers to win this game.

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AFC North:

Comprises the Steelers (8-0), Ravens (6-2), Browns and Bengals.

The Steelers are hot favourites but their weak performance against lowly Dallas couls signal a slump in the near future. They face division rivals Cincinnati twice in the 2nd half of the season and with rookie Joe Borrow in good form they are no pushover.

Also the Steelers have yet to face the Ravens, Bills and the Colts - tough match-ups.

In contrast the Ravens have Patriots, Titans, Steelers, Browns, jags, Giants Bengals - a slightly easier schedule.

The Ravens had a chance to beat the Steelers when they met so are not necessarily inferior and their only other loss was to the Chiefs.

Ok the Steelers are 8-0 and the Ravens 6-2 but that, I fancy will change and I forecast the Ravens will catch up and either tie or win the division. But they have to beat the Steelers on Friday 27th November and remain unbeaten.

Jack NSM

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The Ravens losing to the Patriots, and the Steelers thrashing the Panthers means my bet on Baltimore to win the division is virtually lost.

On the other hand the Cardinals went to the top of the NFC West with a win over the Bills. There's a three-way tie at 6-3 between the Seahawks, Rams and Cards but the Cards lead on countback. QB K. Murray continues to impress and further his MVP credentials. The defence continues to ship points however.

The Titans are being found out.

Injury to Drew Breeze at the Saints could stop them. I suffered bruised ribs once in a staff versus student cricket match at Lancaster Uni, when two of us went to field the same ball and my team mate didnt hear 'its mine' and cannoned into my right side. It was extrememly painfull for weeks. Every time you breathed it hurt and you could not laugh. Depending how bad it is if I were a Saints fan I would be anxious.

Jack

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5 game winning streak now for The Dolphins to go 6-3, the next 3 games all look winnable , Broncos, Jets and Bengals. It’s a bye week for Buffalo so it should be 7-3 each this time next week but I’ve probably jinxed it now.

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On 11/11/2020 at 02:41, Klassik said:

I'm not really following the NFL too closely this year aside from the Giants, but the Giants better beat the Eagles this week after they handed the Eagles the win in their last matchup a few weeks ago.  >:( 

I'm still slightly in shock that the Giants beat the Eagles this weekend.  This has not happened very often since 2001.  :party:  With the win, the Giants also have a rare, at least for recent times, winning streak going and they've now gone two games without a turnover.  Even better is that both games were against divisional foes.  The Giants have a bye week this week and then play against the Bengals after that.  The Giants are very much back in contention for the NFC Least title even though they only have 3 wins so far this year.  xD

It also seems that the Giants have given Scottish born kicker Graham Gano a contract extension through 2023.  That's good news because he's a good kicker and he's having a great season.

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Week 11:

Following my specialisation - the NFC  West - I pick the Arizona Cardinals to repeat their victory over the Seahawks. At the time of the Cards last ditch victoory (Iaaiah Simmons interception sealed it) the Hawks were 6-0 , Russell Wilson was touted as the future winner of the MVP award, and they were warm favourites to beat the Cardinals. After all, Kylar Murray was out of the top 40 players in the league at the close of last season, and the Cards failed to make an impression in their division.

Since then the Seahawks have lost 2 more games and Wilson is turning the ball over regularly. Plus we have our running back, Drake, back from an ankle injury.

The handicap says the Seahawks are 3.5 points the better side and the flat odds (the Americans call it the 'moneyline') show 6/4 against the Cardinals. I rate them an even money shot so I have to pick the Cards @ 6/4 .

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man
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