Non-Smoking Man

NFL 2020-2021

Recommended Posts

What's confusing Phil?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Saints QB Drew Brees has cracked some ribs and has a collapsed lung. No news on how long he will be out - but he aint coming back inside 2 weeks. So he will miss some games and that is a body blow to their Superbowl prospects, not to mention their chances of winning the NFC.

This puts a different complexion on the race for the NFC. The Saints are favourites then the Packers, Bucks, Rams and Cardinals. If the Saints suffer from losing their QB, the Packers stutter on offence (a 'disaster on offence and special teams' against the Jags), and the Bucks continue to be inconsistent (they lost heavily two matches ago), then that leaves the 3 major players from the NFCWest - Cards, Rams and Hawks. The Cards are currently heading that division. Could they win the NFC? I think so if they stay healthy. I backed them in the off season to do just that (@28/1) so fingers crossed.

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Non-Smoking Man said:

The Saints QB Drew Brees has cracked some ribs and has a collapsed lung. No news on how long he will be out - but he aint coming back inside 2 weeks. So he will miss some games and that is a body blow to their Superbowl prospects, not to mention their chances of winning the NFC.

This puts a different complexion on the race for the NFC. The Saints are favourites then the Packers, Bucks, Rams and Cardinals. If the Saints suffer from losing their QB, the Packers stutter on offence (a 'disaster on offence and special teams' against the Jags), and the Rams continue to be inconsistent, then that leaves the 3 major players from the NFCWest - Cards, Rams and Hawks. The cards are currently heading that division. Could they win the NFC? I think so if they stay healthy. I backed them in the off season to do just that (@28/1) so fingers crossed.

Jack

At least The Saint don't have to rely on Trubisky as their backup

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WEEK 11

I have just read John breech's column on the NFL website.

I'm glad I read on, having been put off by Breech's waffling. I refer to his summing up of the game between the Rams and the home side the Tampa bay Buccaneers. Bizarrely he notes Brady goes to bed at  8 30 every night and is consequently poor in nightime games. (Breech provides evidence).

Secondly, The way to beat the buccs is to pressure the QB and the Rams have 31 sacks this year.

I'm with the Rams.

J

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seahawks defence got to the Cardinals QB, Kylar Murray, this morning. Lots of pressure and a couple of sacks. Nasty penalty in the 4th quarter when pinned down at a crucial stage didnt help.

All is not lost for the Cards, but this was a blow to their hopes of winning the division. They have lost defensive kingpin Corey Stevens probably for the season (injured in the Bills game) and that is said to be going to make a significant difference to their chances.

The Rams need to lose this week to shore up the Cards chances, despite me having backed them earlier in the week! (Betting-wise the Cards mean more to me.)

Jack NSM

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just catching up and watched the highlights of my team, the Bills playing the Cardinals.  From what I saw the Bills deserved to win this game but have to give it to Murry pass for the brilliant final touchdown. Allen seems to be a much improved QB from when I watched him against the Patriots last year

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What chance do the Ravens have of winning the Superbowl?

They figured at 18 on Betfair a minute ago - with 6 teams rated ahead of them (Chiefs, Steelers, Saints, Bucks, Packers, Seahawks).

The Seahawks played better against the Cards but would they beat the Ravens tomorrow? Ditto the Saints without Drew Breeze? The Steelers are unbeaten but they were held for a long time by out-of-sorts Dallas recently.

The Ravens slipped against the Patriots but conditions were atrocious (wind and rain) and the Patriots have a wily coach. In the Ravens  favour Ingram, their bubbly starting running back, has returned from injury and is set to resume a major role in offence. That price (17/1) reflects the likelihood they will not catch the Steelers for top spot in their division but they are 85% sure to make the play offs when their easy run in is taken into account. They could make matters interesting by halting the Steelers when they meet in a couple of matches time.

The Packers offence has been described as terrible in a recent match up and I'd rather have Jackson than Rogers any day.

So my rankings are: Chiefs (1)  4/1

                                     Steelers (2)  6/1

                                     Bucks, Ravens, Saints (joint 3rd)  10/1 each of 3

                                     Packers, Seahawks (joint 6th)   12/1 each of 2

                                     20/1 bar

I rate the Ravens a 10/1 shot to win the Superbowl outright so I have topped up my stake @ 18. That's like buying a £2K amp for £1275.

If they beat the Titans this weekend that will look very good.

Jack NSM

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 16/11/2020 at 10:33, lower bullens said:

so it should be 7-3 each this time next week but I’ve probably jinxed it now.

Yep, should have kept my mouth shut 🤐 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm lost - who should be  7 - 3?

Jack

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 16/11/2020 at 10:33, lower bullens said:

5 game winning streak now for The Dolphins to go 6-3, the next 3 games all look winnable , Broncos, Jets and Bengals. It’s a bye week for Buffalo so it should be 7-3 each this time next week but I’ve probably jinxed it now.

@Non-Smoking Man my post from last week Jack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did look for it Jon.. So Miami and Bills. Thanks.

Jack

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What did we learn from Week 11 (Rams game v. Tampa bay to come)

I'm trawling through the highlights so its a bit at a time..

Chiefs pulled it off against the Raiders with a last minute TD but were losing for most of the second half. Raiders looked dangerous and Carr is doing a vg job. He and Josh Allen are coming forces and not to be underestimated. Raiders are playing with a lot of energy (favourite 'catch-all' americanism there). For a 3/1 shot to win the whole shebang the Chiefs look poor value even though they are arguably the best equipped team in the league. (That's not a contradiction.)

I'm with 4 teams for Superbowl outright winner: Vikings, Cardinals, Titans and Ravens. The first 3 I bet before the season commenced at big odds and ive been punting the Ravens prior to their last 2 games, expecting wins, but not getting them. They have an upcoming crunch game against the confident and unbeaten Steelers - which  i think they will win because its a must win. It comes up quickly in the calender which makes it harder but that will be built into the moneyline.

Titans shored up their divisional chances but the Colts won too from the same division which takes away the shine on that. Both these teams look play off types to me.

I must start looking at possible play off match ups - I'm lacking on that aspect. I know divisional winners get a bye and homefield advantage. You wouldnt mind playing the Eagles in the first round should they win their division with a losing record. They are bereft of skill, pesazz, and imagination. Wentz is a disaster on a big contract.

Jack

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More week 11...

Chiefs 35 v. Las Vegas Raiders 31

A 4 point game with the Raiders in front for much of the match. Carr , the Raiders QB, really came to my attention here with 3 TDs, displaying a strong arm. It takes a good team to stretch the current Superbowl champions, and the Raiders put up a strong alround performance. They are in the same division as the Chiefs so will not win it and  if they make the playoffs they wont get that important bye.

However, they are at 6-4 and, to quote the commentator, have 'the easiest schedule in the NFL'. Moreover their performance can be marked up because at 7-14 down, the rookie Arnette had a pass interference call against him when, quote, ''it was as much Kelce as Arnette'. That was a big penalty and led to a TD that might only have been a field goal. That's a tie!

So, an obvious chance of a play off berth ( the next team in the division 4-6), and as good, or competitive with the 3/1 Chiefs, what price do think the Raiders are for the big one? 64/1!

I quickly snapped that up with the price of two pints in Wetherspoons - £5.75.

Jack

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.