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Non-Smoking Man

Flat racing 2020

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The Flat season is about to start later than planned on Monday June 1st.

The schedule for the early season top class races is interesting to say the least. The Coronation Cup, and the Guineas are on June 5-7, the Irish Guineas June 12-13, Royal Ascot is between June 16-20 with 6 new races, the Irish Derby and the Pretty Polly June 27-8, and the Derby and Oaks are to be held on  the same day at Epsom on July 4th.

One question is 'will horses who ran in the Guineas, or in races at that meeting race again at Ascot after a mere 2 weeks off?' Personally I wouldnt back a horse who WON during the English Guineas meeting due to the probability of having it had a hard race and insufficient time to recover. Placed horses, noted running on under a kind ride, should be on one's shortlist (given that they qualify on all the other usual grounds (class, time and form)).

I'll be halving my bets (if I have any at all).

The Sporting Life website is the one to be involved with as its free. The Racing Post is costly for the mundane info and opinions provided.

Hey ho were off (if given the green light), albeit behind closed doors.

Jack NSM

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Posted (edited)

2000 Guineas:

Pinatubo is the hot favourite having gone through his juvenile career unbeaten, landing, inter alia, the 7f Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes - a known exemplary classic trial. However, he was precocious and may lack the scope to progress at 3. Also, of course the Guineas is late this year which is an advantage to a more late-maturing type.

Arizona represents Aiden O'Brien's powerful stable and as his selected from a huge stable he must be well forward. But he has been beaten twice by the jolly and its a policy of mine not to back horses to reverse form. This rules out Al Suhail, who was behind Godolfin's Military March in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes over the 2000 Guineas CD. The third was 7L behind those two but got to within half a length of the Horris Hill winner in another Group  3 next time out.

A Group 3 win wouldnt ordinarily be good enough to win a Guineas so Kameko's Group 1 Futurity victory must merit respect, though as it was rerouted to AW Newcastle there must be some doubt the U.S. bred Kitten's Joy offspring will reproduce that on turf. Prior to the AW win Kameko was second in a slow time to Royal Doenoch in a Group 2 at Newmarket, and before that, 2nd in a Group 2 to Positive. Kameko comes out the same horse as Military March through Al Suhail (31/8, Sandown Park).

At over 20/1 compared with Kameko's 11/1, MILITARY MARCH is the selection, especially as the stable are excellent with their seasonal debutantes. Whatever happens MM will stay well as he is by Derby winner New Approach.

Jack NSM

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Posted (edited)

2000 gns Speed figures:

Pinatubo 69, 67, 75 (Curragh) (Downgraded to 69 see below.)

Arizona 65

Wichita 62

Kameko 57, 54 (Turf) 66 (AW)

Military March 64

Al Suhail 63

Kenzai Warrior 63 (Horris Hill Gp3 run at Newmarket Rowley)

Threat 62, 60, 60 Non Runner

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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2000 Gns  (additional):

Betting moves - the favourite is steady at a shade of odds on, Arizona hasnt moved much, nor have Kameko and Kinross; the Godolfin pair have flipflopped - Al Suhail has shortened to 18.5 from 25, and my horse Military March went for a walk (gettit?), out from 22 to 28, before steadying back to 22. My guess is that connections of the latter (who is the current Derby joint fav.) are worried about the possibility of firm ground, having won his last race and shown his best form, in the soft. I topped up at 25 and again at 27 and was mightily relieved to see the support.

Incidentally most of the leading fancies ran in consecutive races at Newmarket on Oct. 12th: Pinatubo in the Group 1 Dewhurst over 7f and, one race earlier, MM won the Dubai Autumn Stakes Group 3 over 1 mile. They were the two best time performances of the day. Pinatubo ran the 7f in 12.36 secs per furlong and Military March 12.56 secs p.f. Oisin Murphy had great difficulty in pullling MM up - after the line, after another furlong or so he was 10L in front of Al Suhail and still going.. There should have been .6 second between them due to the class difference but there was only .3 seconds. So MM ran a Group 2 time.

Whilst those 2 are in the same ownership they have different trainers.

A form titbit I have noticed since my opening post is that Molatham who was 4th and nearly 8L behind MM, had previously beaten Wichita half a length, and Wichita got within 4.75L of Pinatubo 35 mins later. That puts MM 4L in front of Pinatubo. Also we know for certain MM gets the mile and Pinatubo, whilst bred to get it, hasnt actually been tried over further than 7F.

Jack NSM

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Your last paragraph was very interesting NSW.  Doubt I will be having a bet in the Guineas since I've been so impressed with Pinatubo, won me a bit early on last season.  I'm looking forward to racing starting today, I've still to look at the Irish meeting today but will be doing that soon.

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Pinatubo is the likeliest winner on the prevailing going - but not a value bet. As he is taking up 50% of the market there must be value elsewhere. But we dont have a lot to go on to choose between the next half dozen in the betting. This is a race for insiders really.

Jack

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Sorry, I meant French racing when I actually wrote Irish.  Anyway have  just seen the French 1000/2000 guineas, very impressed with Victor Ludorum and a great finish in the other race.

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Posted (edited)

Re 2000 Gns - Betfair now have Al Suhail and Military March level pegging on 20. So Suhail has drifted 1.5 points. He is engaged elsewhere (Newmarket Stakes 6th June)  and may not go for the Guineas. Wichita is also doubly engaged (Irish 2000).

I rate Kenzai Warrior as an interesting staying prospect whose speed figure in the GP3 Horris Hill puts him in the picture. The unfashionable Roger Teal trains. I was looking for it in the Derby betting but its not listed.

Maybe connections of Kenzai Warrior have reconsidered its breeding: Karakontie the sire won the French 2000 gns and the Breeders' Cup Mile. Immediate family includes Kingmambo (miler, by a miler (Mr Prospector))and three generations back is from the family of the wonder filly Miesque (miler). His running style suggests he'll get further but his breeding doesn't.

On another topic (speed) what's been sticking out like a sore thumb is Pinatubo's time figure  at the Curragh - its too big. Speed figures are not set in stone - they are negotiable both at the initial rating and post hoc. Re examining the case for Pinatubo, lets look at what those behind him recorded subsequently - Armory (2nd)was beaten in the slowest race on the card in France, and then beaten 20L in a 2 horse race, Arizona was second to Pinatubo n.t.o., but only 4th to Earthlight in the Morny prior to that, the 4th Monoski had to be given a 63 at the Curragh but only rated a 56 when 4th of sixth n.t.o and the 5th Iberia only did a 55 next time having had to be given a 60 behind Pinatubo. This Curragh performance doesnt stack up on form nor time. I'm pegging it to a 69 his next best figure.

I also conclude that Arizona ran 6-7 lengths below its best at the Curragh. Aiden O'Brien''s crop of 2 y.os last season failed to win a Group1. He was 0-18 tries. In a normal year he would have the fav in the 2000gns with a Galileo. This is why i think our home contingent have a chance with a Group3 winner.

Jack NSM

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Posted (edited)

2000 Gns Bets: £16 win Military March returns £378 plus £2 @ 25

                             £10.56 Kenzai Warrior returns £337.04 , plus £2 @ 40

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Posted (edited)

15 are declared for Saturday's 2000gns , including all the leading fancies. Andy Holding who writes for Betfair , and is the journalist whose methods most closely resemble mine, doesnt give my two selections a mention in his write up. I find that surprising as he is a clockwatcher, like me. Difference of opinion clearly (and time does involve interpretation).

M. March is rock steady in the betting but the Kenzai Warrior is on the drift. There are no 'springers' to speak of (outsiders shortening spectacularly), though Kinross has been well backed.

I'd love a shower or two..

Jack NSM

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Posted (edited)

2000gns update:

Now that all the trainers, jockeys, work riders, scribes and professional punters are on the spot at Newmarket (meeting starts today), the tongues are wagging and this has brought developments in the betting market (which is led by Betfair).

Kenzai Warrior cant win (drifted from 30 to 50) and neither can Al Suhail (18.5 out to 25). Pinatubo must be in great shape because he is very strong at the head of the market.

I watched the Solario (Group 3) last night and Kameko (many people's idea of the winner and a Group 1 juvenile winner), who finished second to Positive in a photo, struck me as a real 'looker'. Watch out for the paddock watchers drooling over this one in the parade on Saturday.

Coronation Cup: This is the middle distance Group 1 for older horses to be held on Friday. Ordinarily this would have been run at Epsom and Defoe (who was last season's winner) would be rightfully short in the betting. But its Newmarket and it is wrongfully short in the betting - everywhere but Epsom last year it returned really poor speed figures. I cant have the Godolfin fav - this has a flying win abroad but has done nothing here and it reminds me of a horse called Benbatl I was sucked into once (to my cost). Stradivarius will be popular but Ive never liked it on time and this trip is too short. They will have their eyes on the Gold Cup and will have an easy time of it on Friday.

The winner, by default is Anthony Van Dyke. This is the logical early season target for last year's Epsom Derby winner even though its not at Epsom.  Third in the Breeders Cup was only one of a few other smart smart performances last year and this is his day imo. Help yourself to the 9/1 - I have.

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Posted (edited)

Newmarket Fri 5th:

Coronation Cup is the main feature (covered above) - no reason to desert AVD as the ground is fast (leading to some withdrawals from the card).

The 2 25 has Brando as fav. due to his rating derived from some late season prominent GP 1 showings (2nd and fourth), achieving a speed rating of 58. But he didnt really fire until the autumn was there was give in the ground so he is passed over in favour of Keystroke who won this the Abernant (Group 3) last season and holds Brando on that form. The second fav Oxted is the youngest of the three and made improvement throughout last season but, again, he finished behind  Keystroke last year. Emaraarty Anna has been supported but I couldnt find much hard evidence in the form book to back her chance.

Keystroke is a big 10/1 for a horse who has beaten his two main rivals and achieved a bigger speed figure twice (63,64).

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Posted (edited)

The scintillating victory of Oxted in the Abernant points to Wentworth Falls in the last at Newmarket. WF was 5th behind Oxted in the Portland.

Available currently @ 7.6 on Betfair.

2000 gns - money has come for Kenzai Warrior (50 into 34), possibly following the good form of the stable. Pinatubo is still strong.

J

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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You got a good run with AVD, the winner was impressive though.  For us another day without a bet, keeping our powder dry for tomorrow.

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Saturday's Newmarket card features 10 more races and I have selected a sprinting filly I followed last year. She can win the 1 35 Group3 5f event. This is 'Shades Of Blue' who went close a number of times against better opposition than she meets here.

I'm on Makanah @ 25/1 for a sprint handicap (again its the 2019 Portland form) as well as the Guineas pair.

Jack NSM

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