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Non-Smoking Man

Flat racing 2020

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Posted (edited)

Must put in a word for the stayers Group 3 that wraps up the Curragh card. The Melbourne Cup fourth, Master Of reality reappears. Alongside him is the horse who won the Irish Derby last year, Sovereign, who put 7L between himself and the Epsom Derby winner Anthony Van Dyke in an amazing all the way romp and who has not been seen since.

Joseph O'Brien also trains Twilight Payment who has had a run but is held by Master Of reality over this trip last year.

Aiden  O'Brien trains Sovereign. I hope to learn something about the reason for his absence during this evening's coverage or from Kevin Blake on The Morning Line.

A quick glance at Master Of Reality's profile strongly suggests its a lot better over 2m+, so if Sovereign is fit and stays this extra 2 furlongs then he could easily make all the running over a track it clearly loves.

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Posted (edited)

Old timers day with Caspian Prince, Limato, and Judicial all winning.  I did back Judicial but mad since didn't bother with the other two who have won me a fare few quid over the years.

At the moment I'm torn between Crossfirehurricane and Fiscal Rules for the Irish Derby. 

Edited by antonio66

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Message from the Irish Derby - 'step aside son..'

Jack

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There was a remarkable result to the Irish Derby which brought back memories of a Cheltenham Gold Cup of many years ago. Michael Dickinson trained the first four winners of the Gold Cup that day - a feat many thought would never be repeated.

Well Aiden O'Brien equalled that achievement in yesterday's Irish Derby by training the first four but went one further inasmuch that they were all in the same ownership. Given that the breeding operation is largely in the same hands the result is a near hegemony for Coolmore.

There are other owners and trainers in Eire (Ger Lyons and Jessica Harrington have some recent successes to their names) but too large a section of the industry  lies in the hands of too few. There is a near monopoly. (Aiden and his offspring supplied half the field roughly.)

Politically and economically there are good reasons why there are Monopolies Commissions - if ownership and control are in too few hands there follows manipulation of the market. Legislation exists in the U.S. to restrict monopolies and they very keen on this idea. Competition is key. The same goes in this country but to a lesser extent.

There must be some people in our racing industry who privately think that what is going on in Eire is not healthy for the sport of flat racing. Unfortunately racing journalists over there and in this country are not 'campaigning' journalists - they are 'yes' men who are not encouraged to rock the boat by raising difficult issues.

John Mcririck (sp?) , of The Sporting Life and Channel 4 racing ,were he still alive, would have had something to say, as he was once given a national award for his intervention against the practice of 'tote rigging' (whereby the on course Tote market was manipulated so that bets placed in betting shops that didnt go into the pool were settled advantageously  at tote odds). Though objectionable personally this man had 'balls'.

Of course I cant spell out my misgivings about the O'Brien operation, and any effects the concentration of power and control might or might not have  on the outcome of actual races. That would be speculation. One thing that is allowable and known about is that one horse is in there as a pacemaker to set a pace to suit another runner in the same stable. The pacemaker is expendable.

I backed 2 horses in the Irish Derby - both were very easy to back on the Exchanges and both missed the break. One was Aiden's, and the other was Joseph's. One was last as the field approached the straight and the other was bustled up to take a prominent position, thus bursting it early on. In the next race, the Vintage Crop, my bet was Sovereign, a front runner, and O'Brien trained, who was allowed by his jockey to amble out of the stalls and take up last position. When the jockey made his run, instead of angling out to the outside to get a clear uninterrupted passage he steered a middle course between runners. Sovereign finished well and all commentators noted his promising late progress and 'the one to take out of the race'. Enough said.

As all Group races (on both sides of the Irish Sea) feature a plethora of Coolmore runners I no longer have any confidence that my concepts and methods have any application or sufficient relevance to predict the outcome for betting purposes. So I will, in future, desist from covering Pattern races.

Jack NSM

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My old mate turns up out of the blue! Hi there!

I had three winning bets on Saturday (laid a 0-100 handicapper in a Listed race (Judicial), 6/4 shot at Newmarket and a gambled 7/1 1m2f handicap winner at Redcar) and then this Irish malarkey left a bad taste in my mouth.

(Antonio - Unclepuncle and I had some great successes at Cheltenham and Royal Ascot - seems like an eon ago..)

Jack

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20 hours ago, unclepuncle said:

If the Government ever need something to put people off gambling this thread should do nicely.:D
Jack - just stick a pin in mate, you literally couldn’t do any worse.9_9

This is a very select thread, winners only, so non of this nonsense Unk. xD Sticking a lucky pin in is more my scene, only joking, although Jack and I differ on the way we assess form, I always like to read what he says.

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Posted (edited)

Unclepuncle (Steve? forgotten..) is only joshing David. We shared the racing threads back then (check the Ascot and Cheltenham threads of previous years). Its true I'm going through a lean spell but when you avoid favourites like the plague your strike rate will suffer. I have got some things right without profiting from them.

On the UK Derby front Aidan O'Brien has entered 7 and will probably run them all. He had 53.5% of the field last year and won with a comparitive outsider, who hasnt won a race since, I think Im right in saying. Nor has Sir Dragonet who was short in that done much since.

I think its ridiculous to have so many runners. There should be a rule against it. If there's a safety limit then he is blocking other owners from running theirs. Anyone who always starts a sentence 'yes,no'...isnt going to impress me anyway..

I'm going off Donnacha a bit as well - no surprises that he doesnt bring Fancy Blue over to contest the Oaks when Papa has Love and Peaceful coming. This was signalled in the betting market when those in the know laid my filly knowing full well it wouldnt make the trip.

What can you do?

(Turn to the AW and let the multimillionaires get on with it. A 5/1 winner of a Kempton 0-80 is worth exactly the same to me as a 5/1 Group 1 winner. And its all mine own work.)

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

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Posted (edited)

This years Oaks make-up reminds me of a couple of years ago when the up and coming but proven stayer Enable (and Dettori) ran the legs off the proven Group 1 class O’Brien Guineas horse, and hot favourite, Rhodedendron. Hopefully lightning strikes twice as I backed Frankly Darling last year at 50/1.B|

As for the Derby I fancied Mogul all winter and have a decent bet at 12/1, and while it was beaten at Ascot I expect a different horse to show up on Saturday. The market will tell the story - if they think Mogul is fully fit then he will go off much shorter than the current 8/1 could even be favourite.
 

The Eclipse is the other big race this weekend, on Sunday, and looks a belter. At the prices I thought Deidre looked a decent bet at 20/1 - stiff track, 10f trip and hopefully fast ground should be perfect. 

Edited by unclepuncle

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I was looking at Diedre for the Eclipse as a value alternative. But I havent had a bet.

Nice price about Frankly Darling, Unclepuncle. Recorded a very similar speed figure to Pyledriver when you take into account the fillies allowance (.6 secs per mile). Both were Group 2 winners over the same course and distance in consecutive races. If they both won on Saturday that would suit us both! (Though Arthur's Kingdom let the King Edwatd VII form down in the Irish Derby, which lessens confidence in my case.)

You gonna contribute regularly? Hope so..

Jack NSM

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I realised Uncle was pulling your leg, hence the smilies all around.

I will say well done, 50/1 for Frankly Darling.  Will you be laying a bit of that?  I well remember Enable winning her prep race at Chester and immediately jumped in at 12/1 for the Oaks, happy days.  Just looked at the Eclipse, aaargh, any of them could win. :D  I don't mind backing a favourite as long as I think he is value.  Stradivarius drifted to evens and was just too good to turn down at Royal Ascot. Hope to see more of you on this thread Unclepuncle.

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We need all the help we can get.

I saw Oisin was jocked up so I threw a pint of beer at Deidre knowing how he loves to ride a japanese winner over here. Enable's having an intro, the Godolphin horse was flattered at Newmarket having been given a soft lead and didnt do a class par time (and the trainer said at the time it wont take 2 quick races) and who knows what the Irish are up too, so 25/1 Deidrie (currently) is a value opportunity (win or lose).

Jack

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17 minutes ago, Non-Smoking Man said:

We need all the help we can get.

I saw Oisin was jocked up so I threw a pint of beer at Deidre knowing how he loves to ride a japanese winner over here. Enable's having an intro, the Godolphin horse was flattered at Newmarket having been given a soft lead and didnt do a class par time (and the trainer said at the time it wont take 2 quick races) and who knows what the Irish are up too, so 25/1 Deidrie (currently) is a value opportunity (win or lose).

Jack

what?  For a moment I thought Chumpy was back!  

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Heaven help us! Chumpy has put in an appearance in the past and was totally coherent (not). One element we have dodged so far is the animal rights lobby - let sleeping dogs lie there methinks..

Just a note on the upcoming Derby- Anthony van Dyke was offered at 8/1 having won the Lingfield Derby Trial last year and went off 13/2 for the Derby itself. This year's Lingfield Derby trial. English King, is on offer at 5/2. Doesnt look right..

Jack

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Maybe because the Lingfield trial has never been of the highest standard in the past.  I do think English King is way too short a price.

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