Sign in to follow this  
Non-Smoking Man

Flat racing 2020

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Why you cant bet the Irish:       I see that Peace has been routed to the Diane in France rather than contest the English Oaks. Imagine if you had that information 48 hours before it was anounced - you would be backing Love for the Oaks wouldnt you, or some other filly that you knew could beat Love;  a filly that you had watched beat it on the Ballydoyle gallops perhaps.

This is the kind of advantage the owners at Ballydoyle, and the owners and other connections of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliot have in the weeks before Cheltenham over the rest of us. They know in which race a horse who has multiple entries at Cheltenham is going to end up in. Dont kid yourself these people dont bet : 100,000 EW was laid @ 3/1 Circus Maximus to win the Queen Anne. They bet and they bet big. One of the Big 4 owners in Aidan O'Brien's yard made his money buying and selling currency in the financial markets. They are very big players with exclusive access to sensitive information.

We, as punters, have no edge here - we are the mugs, the cannon fodder.

If that wasnt enough there are several runners who run from the same stable in a race. Which is the one that's fancied most? The one that won the gallop you and I were not invited to.

A further point against betting in Eire  is that they dont publish rail movements. If you a clockwatcher, like myself, its vital to know if the rails have been moved to find good ground on different days of the meeting. For example at the Leopardstown meeting on the Saturday and Sunday beween Xmas and the New Year the rails down the back and the rails on the turn into the straight are in a different position. I saw this happen the year before also. But nothing was mentioned in the Form Book as it has to be in the UK, and it wasnt noticed by any of the commentators at the meeting. Ground loss through rail movement has to be built into your calculations or your figures are skewed. There is nothing sinister going on here. It just is allowed to happen. And as no racing journalist except Andy Holding and one or two others are capable of constructing their own figures, or because they dont think it matters nothing is said. No brains and no teeth.

The upshot is when the Irish raiders come over I dont know what speed figure to give them because I dont know for sure what distance they were racing over.

Have I made my case?

I dont need the prestige of picking a Derby or Oaks winner .

I am lowering my sights and specialising more  in future by omitting to invest in Group Races and concentrating on races where I know at least as much as anyone else.

It means a max of one bet a day and no bet is fine. I can live with that. (I still have to assess the Group Races and do the times for them because its the comparitive times between all the races on a given card that is the key to knowing what has run fast and what hasnt..)

Jack NSM

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Of course they have a bet, even seen Tabor admitting he 'got on'.  We prefer backing in Group races, I believe the form is far more consistent, although this year 3y old races are obviously more difficult since we haven't trials as in in normal years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 01/07/2020 at 13:02, Speedskater said:

2 hours of the English Oaks & English Derby are going to be on US TV  Saturday morning. What do I need to know?

1. The Derby. Aidan O'Brien is 'mob-handed' (I choose this phrase carefully) and usually wins the race, not necessarily with his first string. Mogul it is argued is his best chance as it is expected to benefit from his seasonal debut at Ascot, over this trip, when the unconsidered Pyledriver (syndicate owned, small trainer, people's choice) beat it by nearly 5 lengths. The form of that race was let down when Arthur's Choice, the runner up was soundly beaten at the Curragh next time out.

The 2000 gns form is usually a good guide but both the boys and the girls (1000gns) from both Guineas have failed noticeably to frank the form, and the best colt, Kameko is a doubtful stayer at this 1.5m trip. The Irish equivalent of both Guineas have also failed to stand up formwise.

In summary, there are doubts about the form and the staying ability  of many of the leading candidates. What is certain is the O'Brien team will ensure a strong pace to draw the stamina of Kameko. However, front runners falling back the field in the straight, coupled with Highland Chief's propensity to hang, could lead to securing a lucky passage as the main determinant in an open race.

One to watch. No bet.

2. The Oaks. This has cut up badly as the french Prix De Diane has poached some of the best fillies. Love is Aidan O'Brien's chosen and she won our 1000gns and is a certain stayer. The time was nothing special however, and John Gosden, more than a match for his Irish counterpart where the fair sex are concerned, fields Frankly Darling against him. FD was the Ribblesdale winner at Royal Ascot in impressive fashion and decent time - though its too soon for the form to be tested. FD's time was comparable to Pyledriver's in the previous race at Ascot over course and distance so If FD is involved in the finish of the  Oaks that is a plus for Pyledriver 1 hour 15m later.

One to watch. No bet

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

In contrast to the middle distance classics (see above) for 3 y.os, Sunday's Eclipse Stakes sees the appearance and reappearance of some tried and tested 'known quantities'. There is plenty of form in the book upon which to assess the race and come to a balanced view as to the likely outcome.

A good gambit is to eliminate the 'cant wins', or 'social runners' as the pros call them: Regal Reality and Bangkok.

Next is to examine, not the strengths of the rest, but their weaknesses: Japan needs further to show his best form and is, in any case. held by Lord North (as is Bangkok) in the Prince Of Wales (Group 1, Royal Ascot). So does Enable, who has been beaten over 1.25m (today's trip).

Enable, Arc runner up and previous winner of that group 1x2 (and others) was always going to be fav. here, and the fact she won the Eclipse making her seasonal debut in 2019 lends credence to her supporters that class will out and she will do it again.

However, last year's Eclipse, was not a very competitive race as the leading 3 y.olds did not turn up and the time was disappointing - the slowest against class expectations on the card. Enable is therefore vulnerable today, bearing in mind the Arc is the main target again. Possibly as insurance John Gosden also runs Lord North, but LN, being a bona fide Group 1 horse is entitled to take his chance. They are in different ownership. (more about his chance below.)

Gosden's rival trainers are trying their best to lower her colours however, so lets look at what Charlie Appleby is bringing to the party. Ghaiyath is next in in the betting on the back of an impressive all the way win in the rerouted Group 1 Coronation Cup over 1.5m at Newmarket (Rowley course). Anthony Van Dyke, my choice, was on his best behaviour on the fast ground he likes and was readily held in second. The form is ambiguous - Stradivarius stormed home in the Gold Cup but AVD was swallowed up and only 5th n.t.o. The time is a good guide in these cases but it was only middling. Of greater concern is Ghaiyath's previous inability to follow up a win. Its an OXO, one good, one bad. Its 30 days since its win, but it bombed last year after 34 days off. There's a risk it will 'bounce'.

Lord North sprung a surprise at Ascot and is apparently a reformed character. Famous as the Cambridgeshire winner, Gosden seems to have improved this colt beyond all recgnition as he did Halling. His previous win in the Brigadier Gerrard, a Group 3, looked to be his level, but the Ascot 3.75L defeat of Addeyb marks him as a genuine Group 1 horse.

Or does it? Lord North came into Ascot rated 112 and came out of it 128. Russian Emperor wont the Hampton Court same day, same CD, off a rating of 105 and was assessed at 111 after his win. Lord North, according to a recognised 'time for age' formula should have run 1 second faster than RE but only managed .23 second. I think the handicapper has taken literally his beating of Addeybb (122) and was then forced to give Lord North more. However, Addeybb needs soft and that was good, and the beaten Japan (122) needs further than that 1m 1f 212x. LN looks possibly overrated - his times are not Group 1.

Next up, the mare Magic Wand. This is some tough cookie! She travelled all over the world running well, including winning a Group 1. She inexplicably blew out in the King George and failed to stay the 2M Melbourne Cup trip. She is here instead of Magical, who is used to seeing Enable's behind, but is an able deputy should Enable fluff her lines or meet trouble (unlikely with frankie on board.)

The key to unblocking Sunday's Eclipse puzzle may be the Leopardstown Qipco Irish Champion Stakes over 1.25m on Sept 14th 2019.

The result was Magical, Magic Wand, Anthony Van Dyke, Deirdre, but the result does not reflect the race:

"Deidre (JPN) was unlucky. It got very tight up the home straight and Oisin Murphy had nowhere to go. He was forced to sit and suffer before pulling the mare to the outside . By that stage the winner had flown. She was most certainly the second best filly in the race." (Raceform)

We know that a fully fit Enable over 1.5m is a couple of lengths better than Magical, and Deidre is not far behind Magical on the above - the question is 'can Deidre bridge that gap to Enable due to the trip being ideal and fitness assured and certainly targeted at this on ground that suits the Japanese raider?' A cautious 'yes' is the answer.

I estimate, if she gets the run of the race, Deidre can nick this at a very tasty 26/1.

Magic Wand to run into a place.

Jack NSM

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I'm leaning towards Kameko for the Derby and Frankly Darling for the Oaks. Unfortunately neither are big prices so unsure whether or not to have a bet. I'm very disappointed the powers that be have cancelled the 'Dash' on Derby day, always like a sprint handicap.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Speed and Form.

There are various ways I try to amalgamate the two cocepts in my workings, but they can, and often are, intransigently, on 'different pages. (My groundrock is that the form cant be wrong if the time's fast.)

The form of Kameko is more highly rated than its speed. Racing Post ratings have Kameko joint second best on form, but the speed expert in Raceform has Komeko only co 10th of 7 in terms of speed. I concur broadly with this. I just cannot have Kameko on time and Im more negative then Raceform on his time abilities. I have Kameko on 58. I make Mishriff who ran on the same card 30 mins earlier a 60 - and that's 10/1 for the french Derby on Sunday. Yet Kameko is threatening favoutitism for today's Derby. I certainly disagree with the view 'if he stays he wins', (which is prevalent amongst the hacks and the Bookis' reps.

On the other hand, turning back to the 1m 2y.o Championship race, The Futurity, run last year at Newcastle on a synthetic surface, Kameko returned a 67, with Mogul 4L back in 4th in a Group 1. That's his best figure and Mogul's matches what he did against Pyledriver - a 61. In fact Pyledriver put 4.75L between himself and Mogul in the King Edward VII. That strongly suggests that even if Kameko stays he will still be fighting Pyledriver in today's Derby.

Vatican City, another miler, gets only a 59 from the Siskin 2000gns and the third was 11th n.t.o and the 5th Fiscal Rules has done nothing for the race.

After those we have Royal Ascot Group races as a source of today's best value/winner (not the same thing).

Highland Chief has been put forward by Paul Kiely as a good outsider. He has a RPR of 110, the same as Pyledriver. But my speed figure of 53 gives it no chance (and it will hate the track) and 'Split Second' (I think that's what he calls himself - it'll do) doesnt have it in his top 32. He doesnt have Pyledriver in there either! Whereas I give Pyledriver a 66, 2 points faster than Arthur's Kingdom, second in the King Edward VII. A feature of this race is that Paul Kiely, Jason Weaver and many others think that the third (Mohican Heights) and fourth (Mogul) will reverse with Pyledriver. I see this 'rewriting' of the form book often, but its rare for horses to reverse form whether they have a weight advantage or not.

Whether any of the King Edward VII (Group 2) horses feature in today's Derby depends crucially in your theory of Arthur's Kingdom (KE 2nd) run in the Irish Derby. You have to totally write that off as not his form for any of the three to have a chance. There is some evidence for that interpretation: it wore blinkers for the first time, second, it slipped on the wet grass exiting the stalls, losing lengths, and, third, it was injudiciously ridden to make up the ground too quickly, probably because the jockey's orders were to help force the pace for the same owner/trainer's Santiago. AK was sacrificed.

The firm who should know the truth of this (Tabor and co.) have happily backed Mogul right down so I will row in with the view that Arthur's Kingdom's failure does not drag Pyledriver down with it.

The longtime favourite has been English King - winner of the Lingfield Derby trial, nominally only a Listed contest but one from which last year's longshot Derby winner came (Anthony Van Dyke). That was long enough ago (June 5th) for something to come out of the race to confirm the form. Berkshire Rocco arguably did just enough in finishing second in the Queen's vase to subsequent Irish Derby winner, Santiago, to do just that. I gave it a 63 and Berkshire Rocco a 61. Sound Of Cannons, the Lingfield 4th was 5th to Pyledriver finishing 2L closer with the benefit of fitness. That puts English King in with the same chance as Pyledriver. Much importance has been attached to the coffin box, stall1, and the fact that it never produces the winner because of the need to exert yourself early or lose position. That's where English King is drawn. Of greater concern to backers of the favourite is that Matt Chapman thinks it will win 'on the bridle'.

Now we come to my top speed horse from Ascot (and from anywhere) running in the Derby - Russian Emperor. Ryan Moore rode it to win the Group 3 Hampton Court but deserts it for Mogul (further evidence that AK was below at the Curragh). Russian Emperor gets this figure (70) by running the best time on the round course that day, and, indeed, he was the only horse to match the class adjusted seconds per mile time of the best race on the straight course (which always rides faster at Ascot) all meeting - a real achievement.

But Split Second doesnt rate Russian Emperor in his top 32 for time. Nor is it highly rated by the Raceform's form experts - only gets 111, a pound above Pyledriver and fully 11 points behind Kameko.

So the form and speed figures aren't matching up. And my speed figures wildly differ from Split Second's. The latter difference could be due to 2 things: 1. Is a difference in our standard times for that distance and, 2., a difference in our respective assessment of the 'track variance' (the state of the going).

Hummm...interesting.

I now think Pyledriver , my original fancy, will be thereabouts having lost confidence after the Irish Derby. Its last run was far in excess of anything it had done before and the trainer says its only in the last few weeks the horse has come to himself. He could improve as much from Ascot as Mogul and the Mohawk. If Kameko doesnt stay and Redvers the breeding man who manages the horse seemed dubious on the Racing Post Podcast, then its a scrum with 4 or 5 fighting out an exciting photo finish.

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've pulled the trigger on both Kameko and Frankly Darling, another one at a good price Certain Lad in the 3.00 Epsom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Speedskater said:

any links to the forms?

about what time of day will the Oaks  and Derby be run?

Oaks 3.40pm

Derby 4.55pm

You can see the form when you click on any individual race, colours and best prices at the bookies. https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What an impressive performance by Love to win the Oaks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was it a surprise Serpantine won the Derby?  I don't think so,  Galileo colts can improve leaps and bounds very quickly, and are pretty much sure to stay 1.5 miles. Well done A.P O'Brien.  I did have £3 e/w on the 2nd Khakifa Set, my main bet was Kameko and both horses are trained by A. Balding, not only that the jockey Tom Marquand is riding out of his skin at the moment and he did get 'jocked off' the favourite English King.

I will NOT be having a bet in the Eclipse today, just watch and enjoy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

My immediate thought was some senior jockeys should be hanging up their boots after the Derby. I thought Safe Voyage would win but I dont bet under 2/1 - so much can go wrong.

Here are the seconds per mile figures adjusted for class and sex. (Anyone can see which is the fastest race absolutely by comparing the finishing time with the standard time - this is what the TV channels do because its simple. What I do is adjust that time by relating it to what a horse of that class age and sex should do eg., a 0-100 older handicapper should run .3 seconds per mile faster than a 0-95 older handicapper (4+) etc., etc. - this way you can see how comparitively fast each race on the card was. Then you compare those figures with past meetings at that track on that going to regulate your assessment. So at Royal Ascot I can compare 5 days for checking purposes, adjusting each day according to the track variant (going). I allow 2 secs per mile for each graduation, eg., 'good/soft' is 2 spm slower than 'good'.

Here goes (makes interesting reading): (I distinguish between round and straight because the going can differ eg., Sandown 5f is a different track and Epsom is downhill so it will drain differentially)

1. Woodcote (straight course) 2.8 fast

2. 3.1 fast (rnd)

3. Sky Defender 4.5 fast (rnd)

4. Love 5.8 fast (rnd)

5. Summer Romance 3.2 fast (rnd)

6. Serpentine 4.6 fast (rnd)

7. Muntadab 4.9 fast (rnd)

So Love was the star of the show. Serpentine was nothing special and the time contributes to the theory that the other jocks were sleeping or something else, according to what stable they were riding for. Also the Royal Ascot Tuesday middle distance Group 2s were rubbish (King Edward VII and Ribblesdale) and so were all the Guineas (something Ive been saying all along). Note Muntadab, beaten at Musselburgh a few days ago was closer to its class expected time than the Derby.

Now that Aidan O'Brien has won both our middle distance classics the Pattern is at his mercy - only John Gosden stands against him. This means I'm out. I cant work O'Brien out and I'm not going to waste my time and money trying.

First rule of punting - work out what you do best and have the patience to stick to it. Currently that's not Group races - fortunately I have kept stakes low so not too much damage, except to my pride.

(That Love increased her speed figure markedly from the 1000 gns is due to the fact that she is a stayer and improved for the run and the trip. In my view she has detached herself from the 1000 gns form - she is now a different item.)

Jack

Edited by Non-Smoking Man

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought the Derby result should have triggered a steward's inquiry into the winner's improvement in form. Maiden winners do not routinely win Classics.

Jack

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.