The 2022 Grand National is upon us and so I'm posting as I know some of you will have a flutter despite it appearing that no one on the Wam is interested in horseracing.
I enjoy writing so its no chore - and in the writing I find I sort stuff out as I go..
My starting point is always finding weaknesses - if gee gees have weaknesses and they are short in the betting there is betting value to be had elsewhere
1. The 5 or 6 horses at the top of the weights have seen better days and horses carrying a lot of weight have a statistical poor chance of winning.
2. I selected Mister Fogpatches at Cheltenhgam in the Kim Muir and it struggled - so I'm eliminating most horses that has form with it.
3. The race is rammed with Irish horses from select stables and they are filling the entries to prevent horses in better form for competing for the huge prize money.
Effectively these stables are cramming the field with their own no hopers. This makes for a race that looks competitive (40+ runners) but isnt.
Having said that there is a lot of luck involved with so many runners and (still) challenging fences - so no guarantees, just guidance.
When I scanned the runners I liked 'Two For Gold' but he is more likely to go for the Bowl over a trip more in keeping with his record. He could be interesting in a GN because he looks an out and out stayer over 3m and may improve over further. Further he is Group placed so has class.
Last year's winner (Minella Times), has shown nothing since.
Burrows Saint was placed last year but was thrashed by Any Second and Escaria Ten last time out.
Longhouse Poet won the important Thyestes Chase but had Mister Fogpatches in third so is tainted; also, he's never been over this sort of trip.
One horse I like who ran in the Thyestes (but was making its seasonal debut that day so I forgive him the form) is Escaria Ten and that HAS run well in a Group race over the trip (the 2021 NH Chase over 3m 6F, running Galvin close.
Ive been all morning redoing my Faireyhouse standard times to come to grips with his next run when in a photo with Any Second. Was it quick? Yes it was.
I watched that race a couiple of times and this Escaria Ten is a big longstriding type who will relish the flat galloping nature of the Grand National course. Moreover he jumped well and safely - an important point.
He hails from the GN winning trainer Gordon Elliot and he looks the bet @ 16 (Betfair Exchange).
I'm with ESCARIA TEN and hopeful of a good run.
Jack NSM
I enjoy writing so its no chore - and in the writing I find I sort stuff out as I go..
My starting point is always finding weaknesses - if gee gees have weaknesses and they are short in the betting there is betting value to be had elsewhere
1. The 5 or 6 horses at the top of the weights have seen better days and horses carrying a lot of weight have a statistical poor chance of winning.
2. I selected Mister Fogpatches at Cheltenhgam in the Kim Muir and it struggled - so I'm eliminating most horses that has form with it.
3. The race is rammed with Irish horses from select stables and they are filling the entries to prevent horses in better form for competing for the huge prize money.
Effectively these stables are cramming the field with their own no hopers. This makes for a race that looks competitive (40+ runners) but isnt.
Having said that there is a lot of luck involved with so many runners and (still) challenging fences - so no guarantees, just guidance.
When I scanned the runners I liked 'Two For Gold' but he is more likely to go for the Bowl over a trip more in keeping with his record. He could be interesting in a GN because he looks an out and out stayer over 3m and may improve over further. Further he is Group placed so has class.
Last year's winner (Minella Times), has shown nothing since.
Burrows Saint was placed last year but was thrashed by Any Second and Escaria Ten last time out.
Longhouse Poet won the important Thyestes Chase but had Mister Fogpatches in third so is tainted; also, he's never been over this sort of trip.
One horse I like who ran in the Thyestes (but was making its seasonal debut that day so I forgive him the form) is Escaria Ten and that HAS run well in a Group race over the trip (the 2021 NH Chase over 3m 6F, running Galvin close.
Ive been all morning redoing my Faireyhouse standard times to come to grips with his next run when in a photo with Any Second. Was it quick? Yes it was.
I watched that race a couiple of times and this Escaria Ten is a big longstriding type who will relish the flat galloping nature of the Grand National course. Moreover he jumped well and safely - an important point.
He hails from the GN winning trainer Gordon Elliot and he looks the bet @ 16 (Betfair Exchange).
I'm with ESCARIA TEN and hopeful of a good run.
Jack NSM
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